I made a mention this week about Iraq being in a good place – my optimism continues. Every week, I read thousands of posts…This last week, I read one that hit me right in the chest… Quote: “… in hindsight, it makes perfect sense that we didn’t have an RV before the people forcefully demanded change.” I can’t help but think how true it is. And how obvious! Iraq has made tons of progress. They were thrown into a dark hole when Saddam Hussein was removed. Their currency plummeted from a high value down to a lowly scrap.
Then the country began to rebuild, …and eventually the world recognized their progress with the official lifting of Chapter 7 sanctions. More progress has been made, hurdles have been cleared, and Iraq is nowhere near what it was in 2003. All along the path of this rebuilding, we’ve been watching and waiting for a major change. Not that the change from 4000:1 to the current 1190:1 isn’t a “major change”…but it’s not the “major” change they are capable of. It’s not “the” change we are waiting for. It’s not the change that we know is coming. As we look back on the last decade plus, with the benefit of hindsight, it’s easy to see how and why they haven’t RV’d yet. It’s quite simple, really:
Political players and parties have been able to manipulate the status quo, and profit from it. I would say it’s fair to write down as fact that there are players in this situation that have worked specifically against the RV… because they were making money on the system as it was, and why would they change that?! Although tremendous ground has been covered in Iraq’s journey back to prosperity, there have been people and groups that had a vested interest in seeing Iraq maintain the status quo (no RV), and keep the people impoverished. Hope is not lost, though. Far from it, in fact!
The players and groups that have an interest in keeping the exchange rate as it is are not a huge group. The “bad” part of the Government of Iraq isn’t the majority. And it appears that change is happening now. Since early October, there have been serious protests in Iraq, and the pressure has resulted in Iraq moving towards some changes that (in hindsight) have been necessary this whole time. A few of the “bad guys” aren’t going to be happy, and they will put up some resistance still, but they will fall to the side and Iraq’s currency will not stay in the “XXXX:1” range. The question has always been “when”, not “if”. Over the recent years, Iraq has been at a tipping point. SO CLOSE, all the time! In hindsight, what was needed is obvious. And it’s happening right now.