The fact that Oil is returning to normal and sustainable price levels…well, that’s just gravy. One other component I think we need to keep on the radar is still the HCL. While we are seeing a lot of positive news on many other fronts, the HCL seems… suspiciously quiet. The HCL (Hydro Carbon Law) is extremely important. It covers a few things, perhaps most importantly is the money-sharing arrangement that it provides… Oil, the Transportation of Oil, the price of Oil, the intrinsic connection between Oil and Iraq’s economy… this is a short list of why the HCL is important.
The recent Iran-Turkey pipeline incident, courtesy of the PKK (Kurds), is certainly going to have an affect… particularly since Turkey seems to not want anything to do with fixing it. This incident hurts Iran more than anyone, benefits Iraq, and Turkey comes out better as well – both politically, financially, and in terms of future positioning. That also comes back full circle to the HCL…eliminating Iran from the equation is a benefit to Iraq, and the HCL will be used to ensure that the Kurds get a larger portion of these benefits. Once again, when you look at the big picture it starts to make sense “why” the RV didn’t happen yet. The dominoes have been being placed, one at a time, and the HCL just might be the force that starts them moving…things are about to start happening REALLY FAST.