DID YOU KNOW?
If you are wondering the relevance of this information, it is the basis for the implementation of, and spirit of, the GCR/RV. It is the “Wisdom of the Crowds” theory that will marshal forth the changes in humanity. The collective participation of the wisdom of the individual is the only way to effect the spiritual healing on a global scale. In other words, “collective judgment” can be a lot more accurate and higher quality than individual judgment. Even if the Powers to be are not actually following a written agenda of the “Wisdom of The Crowds Theory” it is what is happening.
Do we, as a part of the population, understand how decisions are made that affect our daily lives? We all have some rudimentary understanding or surface knowledge of what deciding factors and mechanisms are generally utilized to dictate and determine policy adjustments in various sectors of society such as laws, bills, corporate structure, monetary and fiscal policy, foreign policy, banking policy, trade and pretty much any other aspect of economic, corporate and social development.
The common understanding is that decisions are made for us by small groups of people and experts who are arrogant enough to believe their point of view is the right one. Those few believe they are smarter than the average person and therefore what they decide is always the best solution. Congress, the Senate, think tanks, corporate boards, town councils, Supreme Court Judges, hell even a Home Owners Association, all act under the guise that they are working and making decisions on behalf of the people they represent; in some cases, they are. This perception has been the status quo throughout history. There are those who govern and those who are governed.
Generally speaking, these groups of individual achieve their positions based off experience, wisdom and perceived intellect. But I question the fact that the ideology or perceptions of one individual’s life’s experience and education can make decisions that are equal and fair for the masses. Collective wisdom has its limits.
Since the birth of the electronic age, followed by the computer age, the scenario of decision making has taken on a new format. Analytics are the new governing decision makers. With added capacity of data storage, information can be drawn upon to configure algorithms to achieve or predict specific outcomes, or probabilities, and is how most decisions are generated.
Algorithms, by definition, is a step-by-step procedure or method for solving a problem. The procedures or methods for solving a problem are established based on compiled information relative to the problem. But if the information being utilized to create the algorithm is skewed, polluted, manipulated or inaccurate, then the outcome or solution to the given problem may also be inaccurate. Algorithms are prevalent in most every function of your daily life.
For example; algorithms are applied to your bank accounts. They track your spending habits, amount of deposits and withdrawals. When too large of a deposit is made, or the in and out of deposits increases, or purchases from the other side of the country or abroad occur, or when spending activity changes, the algorithm generates an SAR (Suspicious Activity Report) and freezes your account pending an investigation.
They are also used for “predictive probabilities”. Simply explained, an algorithm will draw on data of 1, 2,3,4,5 and logically predict 6,7,8,9 as the probable outcome. When an unforeseen element is introduced into the step by step logic of the algorithm the end result or resolution to the problem can be less than or not accurate.
So welcome the “Wisdom of the Crowds Theory”. Wisdom of crowds is the idea that large groups of people are collectively smarter than even individual experts when it comes to problem solving, decision making, innovating and predicting. The idea of the wisdom of crowds can be traced back to Aristotle’s theory of collective judgment. It came to light when the Victorian polymath, Sir Francis Galton was at a country fair in 1906, so the story goes, and came across a competition where you had to guess the weight of an ox. Once the competition was over, Galton, an explorer, meteorologist, scientist and statistician, took the 787 guesses and calculated the average, which came to 1,197 pounds. The actual weight of the ox was 1,198 pounds. In effect, the crowd had provided a near perfect answer.
The Wisdom of Crowds, shows how large groups have made superior decisions in pop culture, psychology, biology, behavioral economics and other fields, under certain conditions. There are, of course, variables that can adversely affect the outcomes of the theory such as crowd bias, preconceived outcomes, the sample size (how big the crowd is being questioned) and too much communication within the crowd sample.
The concept suggests that the aggregation of information in groups, results in decisions that are often better than could have been made by any single member of the group. There have been numerous case studies and anecdotes to illustrate this argument, and touches on several fields, primarily economics and psychology.
A practical application can be seen in Cryptocurrencies. The extremely high number of people who are getting into cryptocurrencies reflects that there is a large crowd supporting this financial movement. Cryptocurrencies are probably going to be a long-term trend when you consider the high numbers of people who are pouring into them. It would be a lot less convincing to say that cryptocurrencies are going to be a popular trend if you simply look at a handful of investors who have invested in them.
The Wisdom of the Crowds Theory can also be used by people who use data to make predictions. This is because people who do this can scan large volumes of data to try to assess what a certain population’s opinion is on a given topic.
So for example, if someone is trying to figure out whether the price of Bitcoin will rise or fall, he or she can scan data for a population to try to find out what the wisdom of the crowd is. It is possible to use web bots to scan search engine results to see if more positive Bitcoin news stories are being read, or if more negative Bitcoin news stories are being read. Predictions can be made off of such data.
More and more transactions are made with decentralized prediction engines. The wisdom of the crowd theory could push businesses to get heavily interested in decentralized prediction markets, and this could create a lot of interest in their individual products. It can also aid in governmental decisions. Once policies are made, it is the implementation of the policy and the acceptance of the policy by the public that dictates its success. Policies derived from a consensus of the public (Wisdom of the Crowds) generally succeed.
The three conditions for a group to be intelligent are diversity, independence, and decentralization. The best decisions are a product of disagreement and contest. The collective judgment of a diverse group can compensate for the bias of a small group. It is the independence and wisdom of the singular individual when weighed against the wisdom and independent thinking of other individuals that is needed for an accurate resolution to a problem. Remove independence and people start to gravitate towards a consensus which veers away from the accurate answer.
Everything from international trade deals to military agreements could potentially be effected by the “Wisdom of the Crowd Theory” and accurate predictions from decentralized prediction markets.
The world has run on demographic statistics and its population reduced to digits for calculations. We lose our humanity when people are viewed as things. We are not “things”! Things have no spirit, and things cannot feel pain or love.
For more information on the “Wisdom of the Crowd Theory” including practical applications, potential challenges and the possible future of the theory, send a request to [email protected] subject line “Wisdom”
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