Goldman raises its forecast for Brent price in the third quarter to $ 75 a barrel
Goldman Commodities Research raised its Brent crude oil price forecast of $ 10 for the second and third quarters of 2021, indicating lower expectations for stocks, higher cost margins for resuming upstream activities and speculative inflows.
The American bank expects Brent prices to reach $ 70 a barrel in the second quarter from the $ 60 it had previously expected, and to reach $ 75 in the third quarter from $ 65 previously.
“We believe that restoring balance at this faster pace during what was expected to be dark winter days will be followed by an increasing deficit this spring at a time when demand will recover at a faster rate than supply, setting the stage for a scarce metropolitan market,” Goldman said in a note dated Sunday. “.
The bank now expects global oil demand to reach 100 million barrels per day by late July 2021, compared to its previous forecast for August 2021.
Oil prices rose on Monday as the slow return to US crude production, which was reduced by freezing weather, sparked supply concerns as demand recovers.
Goldman expects the freezing weather in Texas to lead to a global deficit of 1.5 million barrels per day this month and cut production by 0.2 million barrels per day in March due to damaged infrastructure and other factors.
Goldman said an agreement to increase production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies at the next meeting in March would not have a downward impact on prices as supplies are already falling behind.
The bank expects a quota increase of 0.5 million bpd in August, as Saudi Arabia backtracks on a unilateral cut of 1 million bpd, and continues to expect modest exports from Iran this year.
Last week, UBS raised its Brent price forecast to $ 68 a barrel for the second half of this year.