MarkPam: What I can’t understand is why Iraq, specifically the CBI is allowing everybody else to announce their “internationalism” and they, who have worked the hardest and given the most, have not taken pride in announcing it themselves.     Such a quandary!!

JJimmyjj: As long as the CBI doesn’t announce it publicly,  they don’t have to pay the bill they will incure by raising the value.    At least for a little while, by keeping it “hidden” they can get 90 per cent of the benefits of raising the rate,  without the liabilities of announcing it.     In my opinion.

MarkPam:  Makes perfect sense!  The question is, how long can they do this….I guess that would be asking for a date which I know is not appropriate.  We will wait and see I guess.  Thank you sir!


EverydayJoe:  One can always wish and hope for…An anouncement from the CBI, on a Tuesday, just prior to the SOTU… Imagine the mileage Trump could get out of that!

MilitiaMan:  This is or could be a precursor to the SOTU .. Front running is common.. lol  -imo – MM

Samson:  Tamimi: The speed of valid ratification on the budget very encouraging start

A member of the Finance Committee of Parliament Magda Tamimi fast ratification of President Barham Saleh on the budget of 2019 “very encouraging start.”

Tamimi praised in a statement, received the agency {Euphrates News} a copy of it, “President Barham Saleh on the speed of ratification of the Federal Budget Law for the current year.”  Tamimi said that the speed of ratification of the budget law is very encouraging. “The  President of the Republic, Barham Salih, on Monday, the Federal Budget Law for the current year

Saleh stressed, according to a presidential statement, the need to provide basic services for citizens, and start the stage of construction and reconstruction, Which contributed to the preparation of the draft budget and study and legislation, whether in the government or the House of Representatives.   LINK


2Cents:  IMO, the Ministries held by “proxy” may hold up the RI and the final release of Chapter VII….perhaps this is why there are so many articles pushing for resolution and preparation to pass the ministers in the first session when they return March 5th….March 5th will only be 23 days away at the time of the beginning of the Investment Conference….

However, Sunday starts the Investment Conference in Baghdad.  Ultimately, investors can care less about the rate.  They only care about freedom of movement of capital and therefore Article VIII.  The rate matters to the CBI not the Investors.  The CBI wants to use coins and lower denomination bills in order to reduce the note count.  This is better monetary policy and more economical to maintain.

IMSO, investors care less about the rate as it is only numbers.  It just take higher numbers to equal equivalent value.  Value is value.  For example 1 billion USD value of IQD at 1190 is the same 1 billion USD value at 1-1.  It just takes less IQD to equal the same value.  A 10% return on 1 billion USD value of IQD at 1190 is still a 10% return on 1 billion USD value of IQD at 1-1.

So, with the upcoming conference and knowing what has occurred as a result of the Kuwait Donor Conference, there is strong reason to believe that the RI(Article VIII) is EXTREMELY close.  Caution, we thought the same at the time of the Kuwait Donor Conference 1 year ago.

Iraq can certainly function “Internationally” at 1190 as long as they are Article VIII.  However, that would require an expansion of the money supply which we know is not their intention.
I hope that makes sense.

  The problem is that, without a way to move money or convert it into your own currency (freedom of movement) they are pretty much stuck at repeating the same promises they made at last year’s KU conference, which if you remember the articles, was considered a failure by Abadi. I wouldn’t imagine there is much taste for yet another round of promises unless they can show freedom of movement and not just promise it. After all, IMO, and I’m sure that of many CEO’s, Iraq is hardly the only game in town.

  AGREE…..Great Post!!!!

2Cents:  So, based on Samson’s earlier post, it appears the budget may have been posted in the Gazette today.  It will post 3 days before going into effect – Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday……..I believe it then goes to the MOF to prepare for disbursement.

In past years, I believe it has been written that this process of the MOF could take up to 30 days.

Remember, Frank reported that WS said this budget will be in the “new rate”.  If that indeed does occur, that leaves a maximum of 33 days…..I believe 33 days from today is March 10th….

However, I believe strongly that all is positioned to occur quickly after close of business Thursday into Saturday prior to the Investment Conference opening on Sunday……BUT, Don’t sell the farm!!!

It should also be noted curiously enough that the auctions have followed a great pattern so far this week if the banks and exchangers have any “inkling” that something GRAND may be occurring sometime soon…….

  Remember what we have been instructed… The budget needs the rate… SOOOOOO…..

Giants:  Folks allow me to show you where we were and where we are now.  By using the indicative rate as a guide for PERSPECTIVE, ENCOURAGEMENT, AND HOPE……

IN 2017 WE HAD HOPE THAT THEY WOULD RI/RV…. but if you look at the indicative rates for that year you see we weren’t even in the ball park.  (All because of ISIS and Maliki..IMO)

02-Jan 1299 1295
03-Jan 1304 1297
04-Jan 1301 1294
05-Jan 1303 1296

(I’m skipping a few steps due to space constraints but this should give you the idea)   Then as we went into 2018 we thought for sure we will have an RV some time during the summer because ISIS was cleaned up and Mahdi was name PM and as you can see the market believed that as well.  Look at the prices at the beginning of the year and then during the summer.

2018 01-Jan
02-Jan 1252 1247
03-Jan 1252 1247
04-Jan 1250 1245
22-Apr 1201 1197
23-Apr 1199 1196
24-Apr 1197 1195
25-Apr 1195 1190
26-Apr 1196 1192
30-May 1197 1193
31-May 1197 1193
03-Jun 1199 1197
04-Jun 1199 1197
05-Jun 1199 1197

But as the summer went on debate over PB and Cabinet went on the Market reacted likewise.

12-Aug 1212 1207
13-Aug 1209 1205
14-Aug 1208 1205
15-Aug 1209 1205
16-Aug 1209 1205

But THEN…..most of the cabinet was being seated and talk that the budget would be completed in record time we see the CBI begin to take steps to reinstate their status on the world stage and show us 3 decimal places.

13-Nov 1204 1200
14-Nov 1196.770 1196.302
15-Nov 1196.595 1195.595

Now pay attention… as you can see all of this is not a coincidence and is all happening in perfect timing. now as I have shown you when the market has felt Iraq was about to do something on the monetary front, rates went down and went back up when things didn’t happen. Now given where we are rates are staying at it’s lowest levels in years and not moving despite what is being said in the news.

03-Feb 1192.692 1192.452
04-Feb 1193.223 1193.186
05-Feb 1192.765 1192.722

We are hear folks!!!! God has taken us on an Exodus to the promise land and I hope we have learned to trust in his provision and that the journey we have traveled is one to make us all stronger and good servants of his gifts.

I pray no matter how long you’ve been a part of this journey you use it as your testimony of “How great thou art”