Samson: World Bank assesses the situation of Iraq and the future of its economy
The World Bank issued its report on Iraq and its outlook from the previous years.
The report showed the following results:
1. In the absence of structural reforms and accelerated reconstruction, Iraq’s recovery may be short-lived, and growth is expected to continue its positive path and peak at 5.1 per cent in 2020. However, growth is expected to slow to 2.7 per cent. cent in 2021.
2. Higher spending with lower oil prices will lead to the expected fiscal deficit at 3.3 percent of GDP in 2020 and will remain in a similar scale in 2021. It is expected that the ongoing fiscal deficit will raise public debt to more Of 48 per cent of GDP by 2021.
3. Lower oil prices and increased imports will keep the current account balance in deficit, with GDP expected to average 4 per cent over the period 2020-2021. This is expected to be financed in part by the accumulation of previous international reserves. As a result, the CBI’s foreign reserves are expected to fall to an estimated US $ 51 billion (or 5.7 months of imports) by 2021.
The report also illustrates a range of challenges facing Iraq
– a fragile political environment
– a total reliance on revenues. Oil
– lack of services, corruption and lack of jobs. LINK
Samson: Oil falls on worries over economic data that outweighs optimism over a trade deal
4th November, 2019
Oil prices fell on Monday as dealers sold for profit ahead of fresh European and US economic data, despite hopes for a solution to a trade dispute between the United States and China that has hurt global economic growth and reduced energy demand
Prices rose about $ 2 a barrel on Friday after the world’s two largest economies said they had made progress in trade talks, while US officials said an agreement could be signed this month
Brent crude for January delivery fell 16 cents to $ 61.53 a barrel by 0727 GMT, while US crude futures for December delivery also fell 16 cents to $ 56.04 a barrel
The European Union and the United States are due to release industrial data on Monday, with more US and Chinese data due later in the week
The decline in the number of US oil rigs operating for the second week in a row and an upbeat report on US jobs supported oil prices last week. Independent producers are cutting spending after a record output weighed on energy price expectations
US crude prices were also supported by the shutdown of the Keystone pipeline, which transports heavy Canadian crude to the United States LINK