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Aggiedad77:  Frank…..so what is next week going to be like

Each dessert this week has been better than the last

I know you don’t have control of the MR….but a dull week…..I’m not seeing it yet

There continue to be surprises coming at us from the most unexpected places

If I could be jumping around excitedly right now I would be    Aloha    Randy

Walkingstick:  First Published: 2015-10-15

Arrest warrants for senior Iraqi officials on corruption charges excludes al-Maliki

Iraqi Integrity Commission issued instructions to arrest a number of managers in the Municipality of Baghdad and bringing in the ministers of the current and former electricity for questioning.

Middle East Online

Iraqis rising up on corruption

BAGHDAD – in striking evolution could have repercussions in the coming days, the head of the Iraqi Commission on Public Integrity Hassan al-Yassiri announced Thursday, the issuance of warrants of arrest of senior former officials on charges of financial and administrative corruption and waste of public money.

Yasiri said in a statement, it said that the investigation of the Integrity Commission judges have issued arrest warrants against a number of general managers in the secretariat of Baghdad and the Ministry of Electricity orders.

President of the Commission pointed out that among those who orders against them, the former Mayor of Baghdad, Naim al-Kaabi issued Abaob and former Secretary Abdul Hussain Morshedi.

He added that the investigating judge also issued an order to bring the investigation of corruption against the current Minister of Electricity Qassim Fahdawi files, while issued an arrest warrant against former Minister of Electricity Karim Aftan al-Jumaili, also referring to the decision of a travel ban against those who were arrested, bringing in orders.

And linked to the Integrity Commission, which was founded in 2004 in parliament and has the judicial powers such as the issuance of an arrest warrant, accusing orders and has a component device of the judges in charge of the investigation into the files of corruption and with the accused, for this body it is not interested in sentencing and only the investigating judges to transfer the accused to the competent courts.

The Integrity Commission announced in August / August on the transfer of two thousand and 171 senior official, including 13 ministers and those who are Badrjtah to misdemeanor courts, corruption, revealing that the ministers of defense, trade, electricity, transportation of ex-wanted between judicial authorities.

Integrity Committee did not mention former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki Included ordered officials in the previous government.

Iraqi politicians and international reports and confirms that corruption reached its peak during the reign of al-Maliki and that the reforms launched by his successor, Haider al-Abadi is like walking in a minefield given the deep-rooted nature of corruption on the one hand and a collision with influential political figures and religious parties influential.

Analysts said the committee good integrity decisions, but they may face a wave of criticism since they did not talk and did not issue arrest warrants for senior officials and interrogated Although the audits conducted by the Iraqi government authorities confirm that many officials in the previous government are directly involved and indirectly in corruption cases financial and administrative.

Abadi reforms and launched an anti-corruption package approved by the Iraqi Council of Representatives unanimously on August 11 / August, in a move that seriously stay connected with their implementation has faced many obstacles.

The Cabinet after weeks of protests and approved the claim religious authority Ali Sistani, the Shiite head of government to be more aggressive in the face of corruption, reform proposals requires a constitutional amendment, some, such as removing a major positions of deputies of the Republic and the government.

Among the most prominent of those reforms, the abolition of the posts of Vice President and the Prime Minister and serves as the Presidency on behalf of three of the most prominent politicians are Nuri al-Maliki and Iyad Allawi and Osama Najafi. It also includes the reduction of “partisan and sectarian quotas” in senior positions, and activate the anti-corruption, control and accounting procedures.



Walkingstick:  Arrest warrants against the oil minister Thamer Ghadhban and Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Labour and Undersecretary of the Ministry of Finance and others

Doors Almarjgah news.

The issuance of arrest warrants against 151 Iraqi officials on corruption charges, including former oil minister Thamer Abbas Ghadban and Director General of the Ministry of Oil and Waza Mahmoud Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Labour Idris Hadi Saleh, director general of the reform Saad glorious morning and the pavilion financial agent

Said Talal Zobaie that the arrest warrant issued against Naim Abaob on charges of corruption, a draft military channel

And that the arrest warrants against the Undersecretary of the Ministry of Planning and Minister of Electricity Karim Wahid

And that the arrest warrants were issued two days Hussein Tahan, governor of Baghdad by the former

And the director of the Red Crescent Said Ismail Hakki satisfaction and Undersecretary of the Ministry of Industry Mackie Ajil all three issues and former minister of financial resources Muhannad Salman Alwan Jassim Ali, Director General of the Ministry of Defense Department contracts

He discovered corruption loans of up to 80 billion without guarantees will be issued arrest warrants against them



Walkingstick:  Samir Abbas Alnasiri *: monetary policies in Iraq and proposals for the next phase applications

– PUBLISHED IN 10/15/2015

Iraqi Central Bank is responsible for monetary policy in Iraq and its applications and on the developmental role that must be played by Kmussh sovereign sober in the design and application of monetary policy during the period of 2004 the date of the law until the present time through all stages of completion and the failure experienced by who tried through what has been accomplished that creates the kind of economic stability in spite of the lack of security and political stability and the difficulties and the objective and subjective conditions that accompany his work where there was a tangle of plans and policies.

But then it became a monetary policy features and trends, strategies and clear the basis of which a reduction of hyperinflation, which had a negative impact clear to all economic life milestones since the blockade imposed on Iraq in 1991 and as a result of what they suffered Iraq wars for many disorders has become inflation mounts high paces record until he reached the highest rates It deteriorated all the productive sectors and has become a very big gap between the wages and salaries and high prices in the light of the many changes experienced by the Iraqi economy post-2003, and the issuance of the Iraqi Central Bank Law No. 56 of 2004,

under which the Board of the Central Bank of Iraq administration took issue regulations, instructions, and select the mechanisms and tools and applications monetary policy in Iraq in order to achieve the central objectives of basic ones hyperinflation lowering and raising the purchasing value of the Iraqi dinar and maintain a balanced rates compared with foreign currencies, particularly the US dollar in addition to the formation of reserves of foreign currency and management as the body responsible for issuing currency and protect its value at home and abroad.

Add to that the Central Bank of Iraq aims and according to the Bakannouna to the pursuit of stability in the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar and promote the preservation of a stable financial system competitive and based on the market and the promotion of economic stability and sustainable growth and prosperity in Iraq …

The functions of the Central Bank of Iraq in achieving the above objectives are as follows:
Formulation and implementation of monetary policy, including exchange rate policy
Retention and management of all foreign reserves
Management of government reserves of gold
Issuance and management of the Iraqi currency

Monitoring and enhancing the safety and efficiency of payment systems
Awalajazac issuing licenses for banks and the regulation and control of banks as defined in the Banking Act No. 94 of 2004.

The objectives of monetary policy
The objectives of monetary policy to achieve economic growth and stability and to reduce unemployment and stabilize the prices of goods and services and the stability of exchange rates and improve the balance of payments and to achieve these goals through a direct and indirect monetary policy instruments

They can identify the most important of these goals FOLLOWS:

Reduction of inflation
The case rooted in inflationary phenomenon which Eshrha inflation mainly caused by aggregate demand pressures led inevitably to an imbalance exchange market in terms of the desire of the public to keep cash balances over the supply of those stocks, reflecting the increase in money circulation speed and an increase in inflationary expectations at the same time as has become the latest source of continued inflationary phenomenon President so it was the goal of reducing hyperinflation of the primary purposes of monetary politicians

Maintain a cash balance of the market
That the work to strengthen the Iraqi dinar exchange rate as well as the face of the phenomenon of cash substitution and the requirements of the availability of a tight monetary policy of a two-way exchange rate and interest rate, which will affect the money market balance.

Retention and management of foreign reserves (foreign exchange and gold)

Of the basic tasks of the Central Bank of Iraq is to build foreign cash reserve in order to promote and cover the Iraqi dinar exchange rate stability and the creation of valuable money market, one of the successful application of monetary policy indicators.

Currency reform management system
The management of the currency system to adopt any shift from a small amount of currency chasing a large amount of the price of services and reflects the stability, growth and prosperity stage and on this basis, the proposed project to delete the zeros of the Iraqi dinar launches of good monetary system management considerations and the shift of monetary mass flaccid to block easy cash trading and creativity

Monetary policy tools
Is the monetary policy of the most prominent aimed at achieving economic stability and exchange-rate peg rates in excess of the national economy stronger and more effective to face the economic challenges as the achievement of foreign exchange reserves currently stands at up to $ 61 billion and install the Iraqi dinar exchange rate against the dollar is considered to be necessary and appropriate economic policies and the auctions of foreign currency by the Central Bank of Iraq held a positive role in maintaining the appropriate level of the exchange rate and install a negative role in the lack of control over foreign currency, which led to the escape of a portion of what is sold in individuals currency abroad and formally and without control, hurting the Iraqi economy has taken CBI several steps to expand the list of tools available to monetary policy and to cover the required reserves to include government deposits and the granting of facilities on deposits that mature in a short period in order to allow banks to manage the development of liquidity way more effective and can identify the most important what has been achieved monetary policy tools in the past (2004 – 2015 ) As follows :

First: the relative stability of exchange rates
The current structural stability of the rates of exchange rate despite the ups and downs to the current rates several times during 2014 and 2015, has been granted an opportunity for the Iraqi economy to rebuild and relative growth despite the fact that prices have not stabilized completely and due in part to the lack of stability and the nature of the security conditions and politics and falling global oil prices and the weakness of economic planning through which Iraq was able policy adopted by the Central Bank of Iraq started to maintain a relatively balanced rate of the Iraqi dinar rate.

Second, monetary policy hardline
The tight monetary policy adopted by the Central Bank of Iraq as part of a strategy to achieve the goal of stability has shown that the financial system Almdolr taking tends to decline because of the launch of the freedom of foreign exchange in accordance with the Principles and guidelines have been modified several times, but no full Aalsatrh on the cash trading market because of speculation in the parallel market and the weakness of mechanisms and policies adopted and loss of coordination between the competent episodes in Iraq’s economic and appliances.

Third: the stability of the financial system

Monetary policy has embarked on the establishment of an effective framework for action works towards strengthening confidence in the local currency to create a strong and deep conditions the stability of the financial system in any transfer of the impact of operational objectives for monetary policy to achieve an immediate objective of the policy itself

Fourth: the reduction of inflationary phenomenon
Reflects the gradual decline in inflationary phenomenon positive effects of the policy of the Central Bank of Iraq in the promotion of exchange of the Iraqi tastiest dinar pricepeppered strong effects on the stability of goods tradable prices, which Eshrha at the same time the annual inflation basis (expressed in index of consumer prices) which led this policy to reduce The annual inflation rate to 2.6% in August 2015 and requires from the Iraqi Central Bank to adopt a policy aimed at reducing inflation and to address the trends and causes and in a manner provides critical stability of the wider and order to expedite the economic growth rates and ensure perpetuating through two signals main points, namelystrengthening the real interest rate and the price of the Iraqi dinar exchange on to accelerate the balance and stability of the financial market and macroeconomic stability in the country.

Fifth: to control the levels of liquidity and management
According to the economic stability of the rules of monetary policy works analyzing the money supply and narrow in its broadest sense and liquidity position and determine the money supply and its components in the broad sense (cash) but the reality of the application confirms that control the levels of liquidity has not been achieved fully and effectively and had a negative impact on the cash trading activity and thus not control of liquidity in the lower and upper boundaries and within the standards set by the Central Bank of Iraq.

Sixth: stimulate the banks to move towards market
Implementation of monetary policy adopted to serve the expansion of the credit scale and achieve the objectives of economic development has used the bank this tool with a view to controlling liquidity through directed banks to move towards the market and contribute to the economic stability of the monetary credit granted to finance the economic sectors of agriculture, industry, services, trade and housing, but conditions in Iraq economic, security, political, and not to give the key role of the private banking sector led to the weakness of the private sector-led market.

Monetary policy proposals for the next phase applications
Since the Central Bank of Iraq is currently preparing a plan for the coming years in the development of policies, programs and working mechanisms and in particular with regard to the applications of monetary policy and means of supervision and control of the Iraqi banking sector believe that the study made ​​the following observations and suggestions:

That the Central Bank of Iraq to re-plan and future policies of cash until 2020 with confirmation of its main goal of dealing with inflation and achieve the planned growth in the contribution of the banking sector in the GDP and the central economic task as well as it is necessary to search for new policies to achieve this goal and allows the government and private banks to participate in growth and investment in accordance with the mechanisms and policies can be implemented without the imposition of strict policies and give sufficient elasticity.

Address the apparent gap between the financial policies of the state and monetary policies adopted by the Central Bank of Iraq and the requirements of the fight against inflationary pressures and reduce the current expenditure and coordination of plans and programs to achieve the rescue of the Iraqi economy from financial collapse.

Activation of the Iraqi Central Bank’s policy control over monetary policy in the private banking system to support and reconsider the policies of lending and the mechanics of credit risk management in the granting of credit to small and medium investment and loans in production and investment sectors that check clear cash flow and revive the economic cycle, which would contribute to the economic development and diversification of financial resources the general budget.

The Central Bank of Iraq to reconsider study the possibility of lowering the cap timeout law of the volume of deposits in banks and frozen with the Central Bank of Iraq without investment as these frozen funds can invest and benefit from the support of private banks and enable them to expand their investment activities and the search for new banking products also requires the development of mechanisms for lending to banks, which suffer from a severe liquidity crisis due to the general economic situation that Iraq is going through.

Development and support and stimulate the Iraq Stock Exchange and to find the means and tools that push and effective market and companies index prices in line, assets and standard output and profits by at least inevitably about the true value of stocks and prevent speculation that harm Iraq’s asset-which does not fit the true and actual value.

The Central Bank of Iraq to reconsider the instructions for auction foreign currencyand regulate the sale of dollar process and define the role of banks in the mediation between the customer and the central bank in addition to determine the responsibility of the Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Planning in the irregularities committed by some customers and not to download only the responsibility of the banks.

The establishment of (fund) or (a private portfolio) to certificates of deposit issued by banks wishing to address the deterioration of stock prices in the Iraq Stock Exchange and the addition of new banking management of the current investment investment climate in the market to stimulate as well as increasing the volume of bank deposits, which leads to increased investment activities in all sectors of the economy and thus achieve positive impact for investors.

The boards of directors of banks in approving operational risk strategy and implementation of the executive management of the bank to ensure that the operational risks associated with all types of banking products selected. And provide a base of information flowing in the bank, which play an important and key role in establishing and maintaining effective framework for operational risk management and follow-up over the possession of the banks an effective system for identifying, measuring and monitoring operational risk as part of risk management. And the Central Bank is preparing a regular and independent assessment of the strategies, policies and procedures for bank-related operational risks and the adoption of this regulation as a basic criteria for assessing banks and classification

Reconsider a provision for doubtful debts in accordance with the list of guidance and re-elasticities and extended extra time for banks to be able to liquidate these debts, most of which go back to earlier periods and most debtors have migrated outside their cities Iraq for security reasons beyond their control and that these ratios lead to a cut in the profits realized actually result These percentages deducted from net profit and thus affect the new investment banking activities.

Restructuring of the banking sector, especially the government banking sector and to study the privatization of some of its divisions, branches and work on activating the operating banks expand and diversify their banking services especially to increase credit and investment share in a balanced manner with revenues of college to become these banks an effective pillar of economic growth that the move away from the monopoly of some banking operations and the withholding of government activities and public institutions for private banks.
(*) Researcher and economist Link


Thunderhawk:  Backdoc Alert

VIDEO: Federal Reserve Inaction Could Start Currency War

NEW YORK (TheStreet) — Sometimes doing nothing is the same as doing something — at least, that’s how it is when it comes to the Federal Reserve not raising interest rates.

The stock market stays high because the Fed is not going to raise short-term interest rates. The Fed is not going to raise short-term interest rates because the U.S. inflation rate remains low. The inflation rate remains low because the value of the U.S. dollar is high. The dollar is strong because world commodity prices have fallen and have “driven up the dollar and held down U.S. import prices.”

According to the Financial Times, the last three items mentioned are interrelated. Furthermore, it now seems as if momentum is picking up within the Federal Reserve to postpone any increases in it policy rate for an extended period of time. That inaction may not be the best decision in terms of the relative strength of currencies.

At least the doves — those reluctant to raise interest rates — are making their voices heard on the issues. Yesterday, Daniel Tarullo, one of the Fed’s Governors, joined another Fed Governor, Lael Brainard, who argued on Monday that the Fed should not raise its target short-term interest rate any time soon.

The value of the dollar fell. By early afternoon Wednesday, it cost around $1.145 to buy a Euro, the same rate as on Sept. 17, the day the Federal Open Market Committee decided that the Fed would keep its target short-term interest rate unchanged.

The Governors believe that inflation is not going to return that quickly and that without data supporting the return of inflation toward a level closer to the Fed’s target rate of 2%, there should be no upward movement in the policy rate.

Certainly, the predictions of Fed officials don’t indicate any quick return of the economy to the Fed’s target. In these forecasts the expectation is for the inflation rate to pick up in 2016 and 2017, but a 2% inflation rate is not expected until 2018.

That’s a long time.

According to the Financial Times article, if the Fed doesn’t move interest rates for a long time, the value of the dollar will continue to fall. This should connect to a faster rise in inflation than is forecast by the Fed.

With interest rates constant, the stock market should continue to rise.

But if inflation begins to rise, the Fed will have a justification for raising short-term interest rates, which will cause the value of the dollar to increase. This will result in slowing down the inflation rate once again.

According to this argument, the stock market should begin to fall because the Fed is raising interest rates

The key connector here seems to be the relationship between the value of the U.S. dollar and any action that the Federal Reserve might take on raising short-term interest rates.

The Financial Times article seems to believe that the route of causation here is from world commodity prices to the value of the U.S. dollar, to U.S. inflation, ending with the action of the Federal Reserve.

The market seems to be acting according to another path. If the Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates, the value of the US dollar will fall and this will have an impact on the commodity prices of emerging nations, causing import prices and U.S. inflation to rise.

So, what is the causative factor here?

In the Financial Times article, the causative factor seems to be commodity prices and the effect these commodity prices have on the U.S. dollar and inflation.

This seems to be the view of Fed Vice-Chairman Stanley Fischer and the Federal Open Market Committee. The decline in the price of oil and other commodity prices is just a temporary deviation from the level these prices should really be at.

Once these prices begin to return to level they were previously at, then inflation will move to a higher level and the value of the dollar should decline. The Fed can then raise short-term interest rates and this will bring markets back to a more normal condition.

But, what happens if oil prices and commodity prices do not return to higher levels and inflation does not return to the 2% level?

Right now, the Eurozone is showing deflation and the UK has produced a 0.1%, year-over-year decline in prices. China seems to be battling price weaknesses, as do several emerging markets.

Rising levels of inflation are not a sure bet for the Federal Reserve. Expected data releases do not lend a lot of confidence in the “return to higher” rates of inflation.

This view about inflation being the causative factor does not account for investors who seem to want the value of the dollar to remain strong. These investors believe that the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates now.

This latter scenario raises the possibility that if the Fed does not raise its target policy rate, other countries will have to take further action to ease up further on their economic policies. The European Central Bank will extend its quantitative easing. The Bank of England will not raise its policy rates. The Peoples Bank of China will attempt to achieve further ease so that the renminbi will fall against the U.S. dollar.

In effect, this looks like a currency war, and the world cannot afford a currency war at this time.

The Federal Reserve needs to take these things into consideration in making their policy decisions. They are, after all, the global reserve currency and they cannot avoid the responsibilities that go along with this position.



Thunderhawk:  Backdoc Alert

VIDEO: Consumers shutting down as US economy deflates

The math is pretty simple: A lack of purchasing power for consumers has led to a lack of pricing power for companies.

When it comes to the U.S. economy big-picture outlook, the ramifications are more complicated, and not particularly pleasant.

Wednesday’s producer price index reading, showing a monthly decline of 0.5 percent, demonstrates a larger problem: At a time when policymakers are hoping to generate the kind of inflation that would indicate strong growth, the reality is that deflation is looming as the larger threat. Declining prices often would be treated as a net positive by consumers, but income weakness is offsetting the effects.

Even Wall Street is feeling the heat. Prices for brokerage-related services and financial advice dropped 4.3 percent in September, accounting for about a quarter of the entire slide for final demand services.

The prospects heading into year’s end are daunting.

In addition to the punk PPI number, retail sales gained by just 0.1 percent in September. Excluding autos, gasoline and building materials, sales actually declined 0.1 percent. On top of that, the August retail numbers were revised lower, with the headline rate now flat from the originally reported 0.2 percent gain.

On the same day as the two disappointing data releases, Wal-Mart warned that the weakness is likely to extend through its fiscal year, with sales expected to be flat. The warning sent its shares tumbling 9 percent in morning trade, the worst performance in 15 years.

Read More When Wal-Mart plunges, sell these stocks, too
All in all, then, not a great environment in which to raise rates, which the Federal Reserve hopes to do before the end of the year.

“Consumers are growing increasingly uncertain regarding their future income streams and are less willing to finance today’s spending with the prospect of tomorrow’s improved, future earnings,” Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel Fixed Income, said in a note to clients. “With gasoline prices at multiyear lows, consumers should be spending gangbusters but they aren’t.”

Wage growth remains elusive for most workers, with the average hourly earnings rising just 2.2 percent annually. Job growth has slowed as well, with average monthly nonfarm payroll additions in the third quarter down nearly 28 percent from the previous quarter.

The data on the ground shoot holes in a number of theories that were expected to drive the economy, market behavior and Fed policymaking.

Piegza said the latest numbers should give a boost to those advocating the Fed wait on the sidelines until it sees more evidence of inflation. The Fed has been keeping its key rate near zero for nearly seven years and has expanded its balance sheet to $4.5 trillion though quantitative easing in an attempt to goose economic growth.

“This morning’s [retail sales] report … further bolsters the dovish argument to keep rates lower for longer until price pressures are evident in the economy,” she wrote. “The question for the Fed is not when will inflation reverse course back to 2 percent, but, at this point, what inflation?

Economists expected 2015 to be the year the U.S. economy found some level of escape velocity from the post-Great Recession doldrums. The ever-growing prospect of deflation is changing all that.

The news isn’t better elsewhere in the world, either. Fresh releases overnight saw China consumer prices rise 0.1 percent on a monthly basis and the yearly increase was just 1.6 percent, while Japan and India saw declines in wholesale prices that were more than expected.

“The U.S. economy remains the strongest in the developed markets, but there are cracks emerging,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a report for clients this week.

In response, BofAML has cut its outlook both for gross domestic product gains and the stock market. The firm now sees second-half GDP rising just 2.4 percent, from the previous 2.8 percent projection. Equity strategist Savita Subramanian has sliced her end-year forecast for the S&P 500 from 2,100 to 2,000 — about flat from the current level — and reduced her 12-month expectation for the index from a gain of 14 percent down to 8 percent.

Given an increasingly difficult set of circumstances, the Fed will struggle to justify a rate increase.
Forecasting firm Capital Economics, which has been expecting rate hikes going back to March, now believes nothing is likely to happen this year. Paul Ashworth, Capital’s chief U.S. economist, cut his GDP expectations for the third quarter to 1.7 percent.

Other expectations are more pessimistic: The Atlanta Fed is projecting 1 percent growth, which is where JPMorgan Chase cut its target to on Wednesday, down from 1.5 percent.