KTFA (MilitiaMan, Don961 & Samson)

  In KTFA

Samson: Al-Kazimi’s visit postponed after the deterioration of the health of the Saudi king

08:41 – 20/07/2020

Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud announced, Monday, the postponement of the visit of Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi to Riyadh after King Salman bin Abdulaziz entered the hospital.

Al Saud said in a tweet on Twitter and saw it (the information), “Realizing the importance of this visit and the desire for its success, Saudi Arabia, in coordination with the government of Iraq, decided to postpone the visit.”

Al-Kazimi was scheduled to arrive today in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, in his first foreign tour since he took office.   LINK

Samson:   Parliamentary Finance warns of financing policy through the cash issue

22:10 – 07/18/2020

The Parliamentary Finance Committee warned, on Saturday, of the Central Bank of Iraq resorting to the policy of financing inflation through the cash issue, indicating that it leads to raising prices and harming those with limited and fixed incomes.

The committee’s rapporteur, Ahmed Al-Saffar, said in a statement that followed him / the information: “There is a difference between printing the currency and the new monetary issue, because printing is an ongoing work by the central bank, to compensate the cash categories that are damaged after being withdrawn from the circulation stream, so the money supply remains as It is, which does not affect the state of the market or inflation.”

As for the new monetary issuance, between Al-Saffar that this means creating a new amount of paper cash in different categories and this process is called in financial literature for inflation financing, because it leads directly to raising prices, and consequently low purchasing power of the national currency and lower real income of the individual, and harm to people Limited and fixed incomes, landlords and others.

He added that “monetary issuance is one of the solutions for financing the deficit, and it is usually used in economically developed countries that have a developed productive system that has flexibility, and is able to easily and quickly produce goods and services that are pumped to the market to meet the new amount of cash. When there are broken resources, new cash is used. To play it. ”

However, he added, “However, it is not advisable to use the new monetary issuance method in developing countries or that possess inflexible, slow and backward production devices, as is the case in Iraq. We in Iraq do not have production at all and depend on exporting oil and using oil revenues for import.”    LINK

MilitiaMan:  If these guys can be any more confusing than they are now, they will. Keen in on the high lights. They tell us the good and the bad. The good is what I focus on.. It is the obvious now.. imo..

The are talking about the new monetary issues. Different categories (NSCNs), as a solution for financing the deficit, as developed countries do.! ~ MM

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Samson:  $ 60 a barrel of oil … Iraqi expectations after the return of economic life

19th July, 2020
Energy expert Furat Al-Mousawi expected, on Sunday, that the price of a barrel of oil will reach $ 60 in the coming months.

Al-Moussawi told Shafaq News that “the return of economic life to most countries of the world will contribute to increasing demand for energy and the price of a barrel of oil reaching 60 dollars in the coming months,” noting that “this month of July will end the first phase of an agreement to reduce production, the implementation of which began early Last May, with a total decrease of 9.7 million barrels per day.

He added that “the second stage begins at the beginning of next August by reducing the size of the reduction to 7.7 million barrels per day and continues until the end of 2020,” noting that “the third stage begins in the beginning of 2011 until April of the same year, with a total reduction of 6 million barrels.”

And Mousawi added, “It is expected that global demand will recover by 7 million barrels per day in 2021, after falling by nine million barrels this year, and the recovery of oil prices to about $ 43 a barrel from the lowest level in 21 years at less than $ 16 a barrel in a month. April”.

And Moussawi said, “The actual increase in production from August may be less than two million barrels per day, given that Iraq and Nigeria pledged to compensate for the high production level in May and July with larger reductions than they pledged.”

The expert in energy affairs stressed that “these reasons, the beginning of the return of economic life to most of the countries of the world and the start of opening air traffic again during the next month, which calls for an increase in energy demand, it is expected that oil prices will reach more than 60 dollars in the coming months.”  LINK

Don961:  The Iraqi economy … the predicament of the situation and the problem of the solution

KARAR AL-ASADI SUN, 19-07-2020, PM 8:06   By: Dr. Imad Abdul Latif Salem

The price of Brent “Al Mubarak” crude today 19-7-2020 .. is 43.10 dollars a barrel.
And according to estimates of the average annual price of Brent crude, the price of selling our blessed oil is usually estimated in our blessed public budget for the blessed fiscal year 2020 … which is the general budget that has continued in its blessed “voluntary” absence for nearly a year.

The amount of public expenditures in this “absent” or “absent” budget is estimated at 100 trillion Iraqi dinars, or $ 80 billion (not blessed, of course).

However, not all of Iraq’s blessed oil is light and blessed. Much of our oil is heavy, like us, and blessed.
The average selling price of our blessed oil is 6 to 9 dollars per barrel.

Therefore, the sale price of oil, estimated in the general budget for the fiscal year, will either range, or is supposed to range (as a personal estimate) between $ 26-30 per barrel.

This means that the blessed budget deficit will increase .. and that our financial, economic, and social crises will worsen, especially with our disastrous failure to properly deal with the outbreak of the COVID 19 epidemic, and our inability to make a fair trade-off between the death of people “biologically” from the epidemic, and between their death “economically” “As a result of their suffering from worsening unemployment and high rates of poverty among the population.

This means that the blessed austerity will increase, and the salaries of employees and retirees, and the livelihoods of those with limited incomes, not all blessed, will be the blessed victim of all of this.

Total salaries of “workers’ compensation ”are estimated at 3.3 trillion dinars per month, while the salaries of retirees are estimated at 1.3 trillion dinars per month, or a total of 4.7 trillion dinars per month (56.4 trillion dinars annually).

And if these “personal estimates” are logical, or close to the reality of the situation, then this means that the salaries of employees and retirees constitute 56.4% of the total allocations of the state budget for the fiscal year 2020, and this is the highest percentage, or “share” of salaries in the general budgets of countries , Among all the countries of the world.

Also, as a personal estimate, the government (even if oil prices increase slightly at the end of this year), and even if it is able to continue to pay the salaries of July and August 2020, it may be unable to do so (or that it may face enormous difficulties in “a measure” That) in September 2020 .. and that the situation will become more difficult in the months that follow, unless a “party” provides an urgent “rescue” package, to avoid worse than the government’s inability to pay the salaries of employees and retirees, in addition to securing sufficient funds to meet With its basic obligations.

In the last statement reported by the media about him, the Minister of Finance says: “The approval of the federal general budget for 2020 is excluded” (to be the same in the case of the 2014 budget) .. And that the government is working on preparing for the next year’s budget 2021, where We need 7.5 trillion dinars per month for operating expenses, and we will continue to borrow from local banks to finance salaries and ruling expenses. “And the government may resort to external borrowing to address the financial crisis.

It is assumed “economically” (and there are those who insist that no single economic law operates in a logical manner in Iraq) that the price of the US dollar rise against the Iraqi dinar, and that we be able to control the rhythm of that rise (if it occurs), so that it has direct and indirect positive effects ..And to avoid as much as possible its negative effects on the economy.

The exchange rate is one of the “keys” to the solution, but the blessed central bank can still defend the blessed “current” dinar exchange rate, in light of all these blessed “rational” expectations … and that will continue to happen and happen, until God decides (not The “employers of” politics and economics in this “afflicted” country) … was done.

Now, away from the “jurisprudence” and “personal estimates” of the data, we will urge an important, careful and accurate study, prepared by a group of beautiful Iraqi minds, working at the University of Kufa, and in the Central Bureau of Statistics, and issued in May 2020 by a center Al-Rafidain for Dialogue, which is entitled: “A case study: Poverty and living standards in Iraq in light of the repercussions of the Corona crisis” .. Among the most important contents of this study include the following *:

In January 2020, crude oil export revenue was $ 6.163 billion, at a rate of $ 60,139 per barrel.
In April 2020, crude oil export revenues decreased to only $ 1.423 billion, at a rate of $ 13.81 per barrel.
– The volume of gross domestic product achieved in 2019 amounted to about 262.9 billion dollars … Because of the dual effect resulting from the decrease in oil prices and the decrease in other economic activities due to the effects of “Corona”, the volume of this GDP for 2020 may decrease (assuming an average price of oil The amount of $ 30 a barrel, according to the best scenarios, and the closest to logic), to be in the range of 169 trillion dinars only (about 142 billion dollars). This means that this double crisis could cause the GDP of 2020 compared to 2019 to decrease by 36%.

The number of poor people in 2018 was estimated at 7.4 million, with a poverty rate of 20.5%. According to the 10% income or consumption scenario (which is the “basic case” scenario closest to reality in light of the current crisis), the poverty line in Iraq for 2020 was estimated at 123,200 thousand dinars / person / month. Hence, the poverty rate estimated according to this scenario is 22.8%, and the number of poor people is estimated at 9.120 million poor.

All this is happening, and Iran’s blessed agreement with the big, blessed countries about its blessed nuclear file is subjected to the blessed “tramp” strikes, so that the impact of the strikes on us will be reversed in politics, security, and the economy.

And for those who ask his traditional question about the “solution” in this “case”, there are many solutions that have been presented repeatedly to “decision makers” in this country … and there are many plans, policies and strategies that have been approved (from the highest legislative and executive levels) And it was all left on the shelf, to be eaten by the dust of neglect, ignorance and forgetting .. Whether we agree or not with the current Minister of Finance, I personally do not think that he needs someone who is “to be seen” in this regard .. Also, he also does not need to sit with a group of Experts and consultants, together, to rediscover the wheel again, to put it under this decaying vehicle called “the Iraqi economy.”

What we need, and what it “benefits” is not more “theories” and “jurisprudence” of experts and advisors … rather that we have supreme sovereign interests “holy”, agreed upon by the political “parties” controlling this country, and defending them fiercely, And with unrelenting political will.

What we need is that we are aware that we have no alternative to salvation from our complex economic crises, other than comprehensive and radical reform .. and that this reform has a cost .. and that this cost may be very prohibitive .. and we may continue to pay it for five, ten years Next .. We are the ones who do not tolerate delaying paying our salaries for only five days.

This year 2020 never seems blessed, from its blessed start, until the very moment when it is supposed to be blessed now.
Three presidencies blessed, Iraqis.
Mubarak’s House of Representatives.

Blessed government.
Blessed ministers.
Mubarak government program.

But … with the prices of oil not blessed (externally) .. and with chaos, confusion, and lack of horizon (internally), a lot of things may be unfortunate now, Iraqis.

Many things will not be okay … neither in the short term nor in the medium term.
In the long run, this may happen … that is, some things may be on Mayram.

However, many of us will be dead, and they will not be witnesses to that .. in that long term.
So …beautiful patience … or beautiful

desertion … blessed Iraqis.  LINK

BigIron:  I like this guy. Blessed assurance exchange rate change is coming IMO

Don961:  47 “Suspicion” of money laundering and terrorist financing

Sunday, July 19, 2020   Baghdad / Omar Abdul Latif

The Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism Office transmitted 47 suspicion reports on the leadership of the Public Prosecutor by 34 reports during the past year and 13 reports during the first half of the current year 2020.

The office stated in a report obtained by Al-Sabah that referring these reports took place after the office analyzed and completed procedures and collected information for 451 reports of suspicions of money laundering or terrorist financing received from a number of financial and non-financial institutions, in order to reach the application of sanctions against Those suspicions set by the Anti-Money Laundering Law No. 39 of 2015 »

The office added in its report that «these reports were distributed at a rate of 279 reports during 2019, and 172 until June of this year, and the annual reporting rate for the two years above has increased compared to previous years, reaching (40) reports only for 2016 and (134) reports for the year 2017, while in the year 2018 (158), it was attributed, attributing the increase in the number of communications during the past year to “increasing awareness-raising, establishing a number of workshops and training courses, setting new standards and controls by the office to the concerned authorities and using the tactical and operational analysis method.”

The office emphasized that «activating joint cooperation agreements with law enforcement and financial authorities; It was an important reason in developing its tasks by uncovering suspicions of money laundering and terrorist financing, and as a result of this joint cooperation, the office notified the supervisory authorities of suspicion indicators available to it for the purpose of finding ways to contribute to the money used in money laundering operations that obtained original crimes In all its forms and recovering them, and ensuring that these funds do not reach terrorist groups, sleeping cells and their families, as this contributes to drying up the sources of terrorism. ”

On the other hand, in order to define the risks facing the financial sector, a committee has been formed for the national assessment of the risks of money laundering and terrorist financing, which began to collect data and information and address them to identify weaknesses, and contribute to determining the level of risks to be dealt with to reduce and eliminate them and make Iraq internationally low in risk, especially This procedure is one of the requirements of the Financial Action Group (FATF) that depends in its classification for Iraq on the results of this evaluation, and the office obtained technical support from the World Bank in order to accomplish this task.

As part of the investigation of the office’s strategy in this field, several regulations have been issued to combat money laundering and terrorist financing targeting various activities, the most important of which is the issue of the introduction and exit of foreign and domestic currencies during the travel of citizens and foreigners, as well as controls for notifications of lawyers issued in cooperation with the Bar Association recently, with the presence of controls Others under the legislation related to accountants were prepared in coordination with the Association of Accountants and Iraqi Auditors, and other similar controls related to the trade in gold and precious metals were prepared in coordination with the Central Organization for Standardization and Quality Control in the Ministry of Planning, and the office works with the Ministry of Justice for the purpose of issuing controls for the Department of the Notaries and the Real Estate Registration Department .

On the level of international cooperation, the office signed five memoranda of understanding at the international level with various counterpart units in other countries.

As for supporting financial institutions in terms of controlling financial movements; The office circulated a set of new scenarios for the systems used in early detection of money laundering indicators that are used in banks in order to enhance the role of anti-money laundering units in them in order to reach the best practices for combating money laundering and terrorist financing in accordance with international standards assigned to the Money Laundering Law No. 39 of 2015.

link

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Samson:  Iran executes accused of spying for the CIA and Mossad

20th July, 2020

Today, Monday morning, the death sentence was executed against Mahmoud Mousavi Majd, accused of spying for the CIA and the Israeli Mossad.

And the judicial authorities in Iran revealed that the spy who was recently sentenced to death, on charges of leaking information to the American and Israeli intelligence, had assisted in the assassination of the Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani on January 3, and has no direct relationship to the assassination of Soleimani.

It stated that he was providing information to the Mossad and the American intelligence about the Iranian advisers present in Syria. 

“The spy who was executed in Tehran, Mahmoud Mousavi Majd, was residing in Syria with his family, and he provided information about the Iranian advisors and the work of the Ministry of Defense and the Quds Force to the Israeli Mossad and the CIA,” said Iranian judiciary spokesman Ghulam Ismaili.  LINK

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Don961:  Half Of The World’s Wealth Is Owned By 26 People

On July 19, 2020

United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres revealed on Saturday that the 26 richest people in the world possess fortunes equal to the wealth of half of the world’s population, pointing out that 70 percent of the world’s population lives under the weight of inequality in income and wealth.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres accused world powers of ignoring the issue of inequality in global institutions, but said that the Corona virus pandemic created an “opportunity”, available only over a generation or generations, to build a more equal and sustainable world.

Guterres, while delivering an annual lecture to the Nelson Mandela Foundation online, on Saturday, called for the conclusion of what he called a new global deal to ensure the sharing of power, wealth and opportunity on a wider and fairer scale at the international level.

Guterres said: “Countries that rose to the summit more than seven decades ago refused to think about the reforms needed to change power relations in international institutions … training and voting rights in the United Nations Security Council and the Bretton Woods system are an example of this.”

He added: “Inequality begins at the top in global institutions. Addressing inequality must begin by reforming it. ”

The Bretton Woods system includes the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

Guterres said that the Corona virus epidemic, like X-rays, had revealed “broken structures in the fragile skeleton of the societies we built”.

He added: “While we all float on the waters of the same sea, it is clear that some land in luxury yachts while others cling to floating rubble.”   LInk