KTFA (MilitiaMan, Don961 & Samson)

  In KTFA 

Samson: Which is the savior of the Iraqi economy … internal or external financial diversification?

13th December, 2020

The consequences and effects of the past years of financial and economic mismanagement of Iraq are still continuing, and building the national economy on a single financial resource has increased these consequences as the rentier resources are directly affected by any crisis that may occur on the global level, as the black gold market is directly linked With political, security, health and other events, and oil prices are rapidly collapsing, as happened in 2020, when only a few days remained;

Oil prices plunged to about $ 10 in the middle of the year, and then stabilized between $ 30-35 per barrel. Here was the end of the beginning for the Iraqi economy.

The continuous fluctuation of crude oil prices has weakened the Iraqi government’s ability to pay monthly salaries and ruling expenses and its resort to the internal borrowing law that the House of Representatives voted last month to pay monthly salaries until the beginning of next year, paralleled by parliamentary statements of the government’s inability to pay the salaries of January of next year due to the lack of Sending the government of Mustafa Al-Kazemi to the federal budget, where the House of Representatives says through the Finance Committee that “the draft budget, if it reaches parliament, needs 45 days to read and amend it, and then the parliament begins to vote on it.”

Do we need loans?

Gold loans, which are long-term loans accompanied by easy payment facilities for the implementation of projects, the condition of productivity, but does the Iraqi economy need it at the present time and with the start of the new year or going to diversify the financial resources is better for the Iraqi economy?

Mazhar Muhammad Salih, the financial advisor to the prime minister, Mustafa Al-Kazemi, told Mawazine News that “real internal financial diversification remains the one who has priority, but going to external diversification such as sovereign wealth funds comes as savings that are difficult for the economy, especially rentier, to absorb them immediately in internal projects due to many obstacles.” He attributed the reason for this to “the lack of absorption capacity, so diversification is taking place, meaning those surpluses or sovereign savings are being invested in flexible economies with advanced financial markets and strong activities that need financing, and profits when achieved are transferred to the local economy.”

The need to diversify public debt instruments in a way that contributes to entering the wheel of investment, contributing to development, moving and maximizing the market capitalization, and withdrawing the mass of the public to be a partner in slimming its size and bridging its gap according to the assertions of economic researcher Ola Al-Tamimi to / Mawazine News /.

Al-Tamimi pointed out that “this matter requires the issuance of a new type of public debt bonds bearing the investment, development, not savings, character, because the Iraqi economy, according to Al-Tamimi today, is in need of a specialist in public debt to lead and draw up its policies in light of the successive governments’ pursuit of a single path in financing a gap. (Revenues / expenditures) are represented by resorting to domestic (government) and external borrowing and the first task assigned to this specialization is “diversification of public debt instruments.”

Salih parallels Al-Tamimi by responding to her opinion that “saving is definitely an investment tool and comes opposite to hoarding, which means a leakage in the income cycle and a weakening But the reality of saving that does not go to investment remains, which also leads to the so-called paradox of thrift, a society that enjoys surpluses, but they will be eroded with the passage of time due to weakness in their investment and their maximization, as is the case in our country today through the forms of hoarding and uninvested savings. Saleh added:

“Nevertheless, when the desired savings matches the desired investment, the saving equation will inevitably be shifted towards growth through investment financing.”

I have posted on this place how to create a government-sponsored development fund that can issue bonds to the public and create leverage that allocates its flows to investment projects for the private sector and not Change it, as Saleh says.” Financial advisor that he can bondholder (and adds as a religion) that converts to the winner (shares as equity) in the fund converted bonds is called a hybrid method that works perhaps under Islamic Sukuk systems.”

Case Allaigbn are prevalent in customer behavior as evidenced by the cash leakage money leakage Out of the banking system, from the cash issued to circulation, it lies 85% in the form of hoardings in the quarters of traders, investors and individuals in homes.” This is due to the fear and uncertainty of political and economic conditions and policies volatile and loss of confidence in financial institutions and markets the risk of loss Awalkhosarh, confiscation and fraud.”

Everyone’s looking for certainty certainty and the availability of the certain guarantees in the recovery and avoid the risk of loss of liquid financial wealth with investments surrounded by doubts. After the trauma suffered by the economy The Iraqi government and the great tremor that the current government faced, there is no longer any excuse or room for procrastination by not setting effective policies and solutions.

The country’s financial policy cannot be managed by the method of borrowing, and this method will make Iraq a bankrupt country in the event that the march is prolonged in this direction, as the central bank looms short “Sharp has started to affect the financial stock, and if that stock is exhausted, alarms will ring and then biting the windows will not help.”   LINK

MilitiaMan:  More data to support they are gearing to go out to external markets with and international exchange rate.

They are moving to an external debt source of financing in where it creates more investments and creates more jobs for SMEs.

By doing so it will support the new market economy and with a better likelihood to be successful in doing so.

Iraq has plenty of youths to fit the model.. imo This looks very good.. “Prices that return to normal?” Would that imply they are about ready to go back to the glory days?

They say they are going to delete the three zeros from the exchange rate or at least change it during this fiscal year. They also tell us the Dinar is to converge with the Dollar, too. 1:1 in country.  imo ! MM

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Association of Private Banks: The Central Bank supports small and medium enterprises” FA #486

He pointed out that “the Central Bank of Iraq has its tools in managing monetary policy, and at the present time there is great pressure on the dollar that led to its rise in the parallel market,” expecting that “the central bank and during the coming period, will absorb this crisis, and prices return to normal

LINK

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“Given that developing countries are typically characterized
by an abundance of labour and therefore have comparative
advantages in labour-intensive sectors, promoting industries

and adopting technologies that are in line with a country’s
comparative advantage would lead to creation of more job
opportunities, rising wages, particularly for lower-wage
workers, and improvement in economic equality. Under such
a comparative-advantage-following (CAF) strategy, workers
would have more access to training and on-the-job learning
opportunities, which in turn helps to advance human capital
accumulation. Unlike the CAD strategy, the CAF strategy
has the additional advantage of not requiring Governments
to distort product and factor markets in order to support
otherwise non-viable firms. Without the distortions, small
and medium-sized enterprises have greater chances to
develop. Another advantage of the CAF strategy is that it
generally does not entail preferential loans, trade barriers,
currency intervention, and other policy measures that
are needed for supporting uncompetitive firms. Adoption
of such a strategy therefore results in more favourable
external balance and fiscal conditions, and hence better
macroeconomic stability”

https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/RECOVER_BETTER_0722-1.pdf

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FINAL ARTICLE #447

An economist calls for deleting the three zeros from the dinar to strengthen the local currency

November 30, 2020

Economic expert Raad Twig called , the central bank to delete the three zeros from the dinar to strengthen the local currency.

Twig said: It is known that the monetary mass in circulation is about 60 trillion dinars, which is not available at the Central Bank of Iraq, the banks and the public, and it is a large monetary block compared to the economic transactions of the Iraqi economy and that a large proportion of this block suffers from compactness and therefore this does not help the Central Bank of Iraq in drawing a policy Effective cash calling on  the central bank to delete three zeros or gradual deletion of zeros to make the value of the dinar appear at a higher value and that the processes of evaluation and monetary balance will be formed quickly in the market economy. ”

He added: The monetary mass can become approximately 15 to 25 trillion dinars, and the value of the new dinar converges to the value of the dollar, which facilitates the process of calculation and allows small and new denominations of cash to appear in the money market.   LINK

Don961:  The dollar continues to “crack the numbers” in front of the dinar in the Iraqi markets: “the rise was not issued by the central bank” and “amazed”, the master of the situation!

2020-12-14Yes Iraq – Baghdad

Today, Monday (December 14, 2020), local markets witnessed a new rise in the exchange rate of the dollar.

He told the owners of exchange shops, according to local media, that “the exchange rate of the dollar against the Iraqi dinar has risen to 131 thousand Iraqi dinars for every 100 dollars.”

And they continued that “the prices in the Kifah Stock Exchange amounted to 1360 dinars.”

They noted that “the selling price reached 131,500 per 100 dollars in the local markets, while the purchase price was 129,500 per 100 US dollars.”

Reasons for the rise?

On the other hand, a banking source revealed the reason for the high exchange rate of the dollar against the Iraqi dinar in the local markets on Monday.

The source said, according to local media monitored by “Yes Iraq”: “The reason is due to the rumor that the government broadcast, to hold talks with the World Bank to fix the exchange rate of the dollar against 1330 dinars, as well as the speculation of traders.”

He added, “The price of the dollar today reached 133,000 dinars against one hundred dollars, a figure Iraq has not seen for years.”

The source suggested that the dollar exchange will return to normal in the coming days.

The prices had reached 130,000 dinars before mid-afternoon on the Kifah Stock Exchange in front of one hundred dollars, amidst the amazement of citizens.

The exchange rates of the dollar continued to rise since this morning in the Iraqi market by 127,500, to reach within hours to 130,000. As for the exchange offices, the selling price reached 130,750 dinars.

This escalation in prices raised fears among citizens, amid panic over the high prices of foodstuffs and consumed goods in the market.

There is a trick on the rise?

Financial expert Ahmed Buraihi stressed, on Monday, that it is wrong to make statements about raising the exchange rate of the dinar against the dollar by personalities who are not connected to the central bank, as this approach is exclusively for the central bank.

In statements monitored by Yass Iraq, Burehi said, “Up to now, there is no information confirming or indicating the cause of raising the price of the dinar against the US dollar, and we cannot talk about it, and no one has the right to address the issue because it is exclusively related to the central bank.” “The exchange rate has reasons and obligations that are decided exclusively by the Central Bank.”
He added that “all countries of the world avoid talking about such issues in order not to raise expectations that problems will arise,” noting that “raising the issue at the present time may affect people’s livelihood.”

And it revealed that there were efforts to raise the value of the dollar against the dinar at the beginning of the new year, so that the value of its sale in the currency auction reached 145 and in the market to 150 thousand dinars.   link

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Suzie:  Remember last year at this time and how excited we all got?  I do.  Now all the info/intel coming to us about the fab 4, white papers, etc., etc. and once again seems like we are really on the cusp of something happening for REAL this time…..but, it’s Iraq and we know what they are famous for or maybe more so, NOT famous for.  Let’s hope and pray for all that they actually pull it off THIS time!  Hopefully some more good news from Frank and teams tonight!!

David:  It is easy to question what we dont know, or what we dont see. Look at CBI, 1,271 dinar to $1 of USD. Yesterday it was 1,251, what are they up to?

Possibly, getting the hoards from the citizens stashes. They are trying to collect all of the 3 zero notes, they want them out of circulation. IMO Frank said multiple times it cannot fail with the citizens. It wont fail with the citizens.

If the citizens wont go to the bank and deposit their stashes, they will see their money dwindle away. The citizens will have no choice but to go to the banks and deposit their moneys. It’s that simple guys. We are simply waiting on the citizens to get rid of their stashes. That’s why they arent getting paid….they are trying to get the citizens to go to banks and open the accounts. They are wanting to pay them direct deposits…imo in the new notes.

Once they receive all the 3 zero notes the citizens are stashing, they will trigger the RI. Just stay patient. This is a waiting game. There is more to the story than what I shared, but it is only a matter of GODS TIME! IMO

Again this is all in my opinion..let’s see what happens when the citizens get paid.

Samson:  The Financial Securities Commission begins its economic reform program by motivating the investor

14th December 2020

With an excellent initiative of the Securities Commission with its new administration, the work of the (Investor Day) conference, which was held under the auspices of the General Secretariat of the Council of Ministers, was concluded in Baghdad. In the presence of the Deputy Secretary General of the Council of Ministers, Dr. Farhad Neama Allah Hussein, Mr. Adnan Darjal, Minister of Youth and Sports, and a number of investors and experts in this field

The holding of the conference coincides with the government’s interest and its continuous work despite all the difficult circumstances that accompanied past and current governments to enhance the attractive environment for capital, by issuing a package of decisions and instructions that contributed to facilitating the work of investment projects and investors, in line with what the Prime Minister presented in his government program And his serious reform vision in the white paper, which aims to provide full support to investors in order to complete their projects according to the established timelines, activate the investment sector, improve its environment and overcome all investor problems, challenges and obstacles to expand a good environment for foreign investors

Also, to continue coordination with the Securities Commission and with the various authorities concerned in this matter, based on the government’s belief in supporting the private sector and investment, because of its impact on improving the economic reality and reducing unemployment rates among the youth

The holding of the conference comes in accordance with the Securities Commission’s program to launch the custodian system in Iraq during the next year, diversifying financial instruments and providing protection for investors in a way that serves the national economy and encourages capital building in addition to the country’s need to stimulate trading in securities and establish new joint stock companies.

We hope that the Securities Commission, with its new administration, will be able to follow up on the implementation of the conference’s recommendations, in a way that contributes to achieving one of the goals of economic reform  LINK

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Samson:  Parliamentary Finance suggests adjusting the price of oil in the budget to $ 49

14th December, 2020

On Monday, the Parliamentary Finance Committee suggested changes to the draft general budget law for 2021 and to amend the calculation of oil prices

“The recovery of oil prices, which reached $ 50, will contribute to reducing the fiscal deficit in the general budget for the year 2021, after the value of the deficit was estimated at 50% of the total amount of the budget,” said Abdul Hadi Al Saadawi, a member of the committee

He added that “the government considers it necessary to raise oil prices in the general budget commensurate with the current price of oil on world markets,” noting that “the budget was previously prepared by the finance at $ 41 per barrel

Al-Saadawi said, “The government raises oil prices in the budget law from 41 to 49 dollars,” noting that there is no specific date for approving the budget law in the Council of Ministers   LINK

Iobey777:  WOW!! IMO, it is telling us that ONLY the CBI can show the rate and the whole world is watching!!! Oh, and love the part that says the ER will return to NORMAL in the coming days!!!

Samson:  Integrity announces a halt to the waste of 9 billion dinars in Anbar

14th December, 2020

The Federal Integrity Commission announced, on Monday, that it was able to stop the waste of 9 billion dinars of public money, and to seize dozens of fraudulent transactions in the Anbar Retirement Department

The investigation department of the authority stated in a statement received by “Al-Iqtisad News”, that “its cadres in the Anbar investigation office carried out two separate seizures in the retirement department in the province.” Confiscating (75) fraudulent treatment of martyrs and the injured

The department added: “Initial investigations have found that the (barcode) number and the signatures of the employees of the Anbar Martyrs Directorate have been falsified,” noting that “the total amounts that were stopped wasted amounted to (8,000,000,000) billion dinars

In another operation, “the field team seized (8) pension transactions after fraud occurred in the book on the validity of the issuance of the medical report on those transactions, indicating that the waste of (1,000,000,000) billion dinars was to be spent as differences and salaries for fraudulent transactions

LINK

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Samson:  Representative economy: 70% of the ports’ revenues are stolen in this way

09:59 – 12/14/2020

The Parliamentary Economic and Investment Committee proposed a set of reforms to get out of the economic crisis that the country is currently going through, while it revealed that 70% of the outlets revenues were stolen through false invoices.

“The committee has put in place real reforms through its periodic meetings on how to maximize government revenues in the next year 2021 budget, and how to get out of the financial crisis that the country is going through,” said Riyadh Al-Tamimi, a member of the committee.

Al-Tamimi added, “There are several methods, including those related to the Ministry of Industry, participation contracts and their benefits and the sums that will be supplied to the budget, in addition to investment, border outlets, currency auctions, and tax and customs deductions,” noting that “the government to this day is unable to obtain amounts Taxes and customs.

He stressed, “The government’s control over the border outlets can only be done through electronic governance in order to preserve its revenues,” noting that “70 percent of the ports’ revenues are stolen through false invoices.”   LINK

Samson:  Parliamentary Finance is counting on higher financial revenues to reduce the deficit in the 2021 budget

14th December 2020
On Sunday, a member of the Parliamentary Finance Committee, Jamal Cougar, expressed his hope for an increase in the state’s revenues from oil and other revenues to reduce the deficit in the 2021 budget, and to avoid the need for internal or external borrowing.

Cougar told Shafaq News, “The increase in financial revenues, oil and non-oil, with the changes in the current situation, from taxes, levies and border crossings, all of this will help the government to bridge the financial deficit in the general budget for 2021.”

“The increase in oil prices and the improvement of non-oil revenues will also help the government to provide financial liquidity without resorting to financial borrowing,” he added.

Cougar stressed that “the loans obtained by the government earlier, the last of which were 12 trillion dinars, had brought about the worst conditions that Iraq is going through.”   LINK