KTFA (Samson)

Samson: The IMF expects a severe impact of the pandemic on the global economy, but only temporarily

21st March, 2020

A senior official at the International Monetary Fund said that the impact of the global pandemic of the Corona virus will be “severe”, but it came after a long period of growth and high employment rates, which would allow the global economy to absorb the current shock

Martin Muilizen, who heads the Fund’s Policy Review and Strategy division, said in an audio post that the main goal of governments should be to limit the spread of the virus in a way that creates confidence that the economic shock will be temporary

He said that banks and governments have already taken unprecedented steps to provide liquidity to markets and facilitate their continued work, “perhaps with more than we needed”, but such steps should be coordinated globally to maximize their impact

The better organized and more coordinated health responses to the crisis, the faster the possibility of restoring confidence,” he added

The leaders of the Group of Seven countries said last week that they would do “everything necessary” to deal with the outbreak, but they did not give details, which caused discontent among the markets

G20 leaders will hold a summit meeting by default next week, but divisions within the group cast a shadow over hopes for strong and coordinated action, experts say   LINK

Samson:  Oil prices collapsed to their lowest level in 18 years

21st March, 2020

Crude oil prices have fallen to their lowest level in nearly 18 years, as growing concerns about an impending economic recession due to the Corona virus outbreak have raised concerns about global energy demand And Brent prices closed Saturday, a new low of $ 1.09, or 3.83%, to $ 27.38, while US crude fell to $ 23.66, a decrease of $ 2.25

Compounding the problems of the crude oil market, the price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia started after the dispute over production cuts at the recently concluded OPEC + meeting without an agreement

Analysts expect Goldman Sachs group to continue to drop oil prices in the coming months, so some expect that some regional prices may be negative in light of the market’s attempts to send signals to stop supplies

Analysts in “City Group” believe that the main issue is the possibility of the average price of a barrel of Brent crude reaching 17 dollars or less in the second quarter, with the possibility of average prices reaching 5 dollars and the possibility of prices falling to the negative area in some areas due to the lack of storage and logistics services

The sudden and dramatic fall in oil prices has boosted large-scale market sales, and threatens economies in Latin America, the Middle East and the United States where the energy industry represents large portions of both GDP and debt  LINK

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Samson:  Diwaniya Governor: A fine of 100,000 dinars for those who break the curfew

21st March, 2020

On Saturday, the governor of Diwaniyah, Zuhair Al-Shaalan, imposed a fine of 100 thousand dinars for breaking the curfew in the governorate.

The media office of Al-Diwaniyah Governor stated, through a post on his wallet on a Facebook platform that “Al-Masala” followed, in order to protect the lives of citizens, their families and their children, from the risk of virus infection and to compel them to instruct curfews. A thousand propulsion vessels and closing 50% of the vehicle’s fuel stations.

The director of the Diwaniyah Health Department, Lamia Al-Husseini, announced on Thursday that he had registered a new infection with Corona virus in the governorate, bringing the number to three people.

LINK

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Samson:  Jordan launches sirens to start a curfew nationwide

03/21/2020 09:07:49

Jordan today launched sirens to start a curfew nationwide in a precautionary measure that restricts the movement of 10 million people to prevent the spread of the Corona virus.

On Friday, the Jordanian government announced the issuance of Defense Resolution No. 2 of 2020.

The decision requires a curfew in all parts of the country from today, Saturday, until further notice, and the closure of all shops of all forms, with Tuesday announcing specific times for Jordanians to fulfill their necessary needs in accordance with a specific mechanism.

The Jordanian Ministry of Health announced on Thursday that the number of infections in the Corona emerging country has risen to 69. LINK

Samson:  China announces new measures to stimulate private sector investment

21st March, 2020

Chinese government officials said China would cut fees widely to stimulate private sector investment and accelerate the development of “new infrastructure” to help stimulate the economy

 China will continue to develop 5G, build more data centers and build smart cities as part of the new infrastructure push, said Zhang Jian, an official with the National Development and Reform Commission

 Another official at the committee said that 89% of major infrastructure and natural resource projects had resumed work until March 20, with the exception of Hubei Province, the country’s epidemic outbreak center for Corona virus

 The total bonds used by local governments in 2020 to finance infrastructure development amounted to 1.9 trillion yuan, equivalent to 261 billion dollars   LINK

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Samson:  Certain recession questions … How will the global economy suffer from Corona?

21st March, 2020

With the answer to the question of whether the world economy is approaching a recession or not, is conclusive with proof, it is time to ask about the quantity

With the closure of entire cities and the disruption of the study as well as business and activities to enter the world in a state of near complete paralysis quickly, it is now expected that the world will soon experience a state of recession with a painful degree as a result of sudden stops in economic activity

In the end, every case of economic expansion is followed by economic stagnation and vice versa, but the important questions now lie: When will we witness the global recession? And how long will it last ?, and how severe is it?

Will the “Corona” epidemic crisis push the world into a recession? The answer comes as evidence by economists in all international institutions as well as research

The research institute “Oxford Economics” expects the recession to hit the United States and the euro area due to corona, with expectations of shrinking global GDP by more than a trillion dollars

Economies such as Japan, Germany, France, and Italy had already experienced an economic downturn or failed to grow before the outbreak of the virus, but the situation is likely to be worse by the end of the current quarter, amid expectations that China will record the largest quarterly decline in GDP in decades

So, what is the difference between the recession domestically and globally ?, The International Monetary Fund indicates that it is relatively easy to describe the recession at the local level, as it is technically defined as a contraction in a country’s gross domestic product for two consecutive terms

As for the global economic stagnation, it must be a slowdown in growth of less than 2.5 percent, accompanied by a widespread and simultaneous decline in various other indicators of global economic activity including global industrial production, trade, capital and labor flows

What about famous cases? The Monetary Fund states that there have been four cases of global economic stagnation since 1960 until now, which were those that occurred in the years 1975, in 1982, in 1991 and in 2009 with the indication that the recession accompanying the global financial crisis was the most destructive

To what extent will the severity of the potential global recession be ?, which is the most important question today, with most international institutions reducing GDP growth estimates to the lowest pace of increase since the global financial crisis

Standard & Poor’s credit rating agency expects global GDP to grow by 1 to 1.5 percent in 2020, as a result of measures to contain the Corona, which means the world will fall into a recession

Morgan Stanley economists believe that the global recession is a basic hypothesis, as global GDP is expected to grow by 0.9 percent this year

While, “Goldman Sachs” indicates the growth of the global economy this year will reach 1.25 percent, which confirms that it is in recession

On the other hand, “Deutsche Bank” sees that the US economy suffered a contraction of 13 percent during the second quarter of this year on an annual basis due to the turmoil caused by the Corona virus, which would be the worst contraction in the country’s history

Goldman Sachs predicted that China’s economy would shrink by about 9 percent in the first quarter of 2020 on an annual basis, while reducing economic growth forecasts for the whole of this year to 3 percent

Now, what about the duration of a possible recession ?, given the history, the recent economic recession that occurred between 2007 and 2009 lasted for about 18 months to be the longest economic recession since the Great Depression in the seventies of the last century, but on the contrary, the economic recession in a period The eighties lasted for only about 6 months

With regard to the current time, the duration of the recession is subject to a large state of uncertainty amid the ambiguity of matters related to the health crisis “Corona”, which killed 8 thousand people globally and infected more than 200 thousand others

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley indicate that the potential economic recession will be more severe than the one that occurred in 2001, but it will not be as severe as what happened during the financial crisis

The investment banks expect that the world will witness a state of economic recovery during the second half of the year, but they warn that the risks remain with a greater degree of economic pain

But can anything be done to ease the coming economic recession? The major central banks around the world are racing to prevent them from entering into a recession either by lowering interest rates or interfering with markets and buying assets or helping banks to provide loans to companies

Also, the governments of the countries announce day after day strong incentive plans to support their exhausted economies not only due to the outbreak of corona and its health repercussions, but also because of the measures that are taken to confront the deadly virus as they lead to the cessation of economic activity on the global level and lead to the isolation of countries and the stopping of services and consumption  LINK

Samson:  Corona has another beautiful face: the normality returns to Venice

21st March, 2020

With the disappearance of boats and cruise ships and the closing of souvenir kiosks, the closure caused by the outbreak of the Corona virus in the northern city of Venice has transformed the La Serenissima water channels, which means that the virus has brought a positive environmental and natural transformation in the famous city.

Whoever looks at the waters of the canals of Venice today, will be surprised, not just because of the clear view of the bottom of the water channels, but the possibility of watching small fish, crabs and multicolored plant life, in an indication of the return of life to the canals.

“The water is blue and clear, it is calm like a pond, because there are no longer waves caused by motor boats that carry roving tourists through the city’s canals,” said Gloria Pegiatto, who owns the famous “Metropole Hotel” a few steps from St. Mark’s Square and has a view of Lake Venice. Waterway, and of course the giant cruise ships have disappeared. “

Under the strict rules of the city of Venice or “Venice” of self-isolation to prevent the spread of the Coronavirus, all trips are banned except for going out for dogs or for food. Transport boats and tourist boats disappeared from hundreds of canals in the city, while river buses now operate on a reduced schedule, while most boats are seen moored on the banks of water channels.

After a few days of closure, a significant improvement in the degree of clarity and purity of water was observed, and swans and waterfowl returned to diving in search of fish that they could see now, according to the British Guardian newspaper.

At the station “Pisali Roma” in the city, ducks made a nest for her, an event that was not expected for many years, as Pegiatto said, “Someone put up a sign saying (Do not step on duck eggs) .. This matter was unthinkable some time ago. “.

The environmental researcher at the Institute of Oceanography, David Tagliabtra, told a local TV station that the clear cleanliness of the water is not in fact due to a lack of pollution, but rather the lack of automatic transportation, which usually leads to moving the floor of the muddy channel.

Matteo Pisol, on his part, runs the “Venice” restaurant on the small and shallow beach island of Mazzurbo, and has recently campaigned for a more sustainable and environmentally responsible tourism model in Venice.

“For the good of all, it is not surprising that fish exist in the channels of Venice … rather surprisingly, it is not, and then we must be concerned because the shallow lake here is a fragile ecosystem. People need to realize that if we can control the movement The boats in Venice and its lake are lowered, so we can all discover a unique biological and environmental environment. “

And in Venice, not only are the cruise ships that have disappeared, but souvenir stalls, bars and restaurants are all closed, which is a severe blow to an economy dependent on tourism, but in the meantime it seems that the locals are rediscovering their city, in a new way, as Pegiatto said “We, the Venetians, feel that nature has returned and regained control of the city … if you ask me today about sunny blue skies and clear channels, then, yes, we would all like the Venetian to remain that way for a while.”

“But we need, and we look forward to the return of tourists, but perhaps not 20 million tourists annually … I sincerely think that we should take the opportunity of this closure to reverse and see how we can be more organized in the future to find a balance between the city and tourism.”

It is noteworthy that due to the closure in northern Italy due to the outbreak of the new Corona virus, there has been a great improvement in the environment and pollution has decreased significantly, due to the interruption of the movement of cars and factories.

The same is recent in China, where the rates and proportions of carbon dioxide and nitrogen have declined significantly due to the closure witnessed in most of China’s regions and regions. LINK

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