KTFA (Samson)

  In KTFA 

Samson: The direct rail link with neighboring countries at the end of this year

13th March 2021

The State Company for the Implementation of Transport and Communications Projects has confirmed that the railway project will be implemented with neighboring countries before the end of this year

The general manager of the company, Zaid Khalil Al-Asadi, said in an interview with the Iraqi News Agency, which was followed by “Al-Eqtisad News”, that “the rail link with neighboring countries is taking into account the interest of Iraq, in parallel with the construction of ports and the transit service, and in a way that serves transport work.

Al-Asadi pointed out the need for large financing and appropriation of the lands through which the lines pass   LINK

Samson:  Parliamentary Finance submits a proposal to settle petrodollars debts to the provinces from an increase in oil prices

17:10 – 13/03/2021

The Parliamentary Finance Committee announced, on Saturday, that it had submitted a proposal to calculate the accumulated dues owed by the federal government to the provinces from petrodollars, and to settle them from high oil prices.

Majda Al-Tamimi, a member of the Finance Committee, told Al-Maalouma that “most of the southern oil-producing provinces have financial dues from petrodollars owed by the central government, accumulated for several years.”

And she added, “I submitted a proposal to calculate this money, especially the governorates of Basra and Dhi Qar, and settle it with the government to pay it from the increase in oil prices.”

She explained that “this money can solve many problems and complete the provincial projects if they are removed from the hands of the corrupt and meet services and infrastructure.”    LINK

************

Samson:  The United Nations detects the disastrous effects of raising the price of the dollar against the dinar

09:11 – 13/03/2021

The United Nations World Food Program in Iraq revealed, on Saturday, that the price of the food basket has risen to 14% after the devaluation of the local currency against the dollar, while calling for formulating policies to increase the contribution to the gross domestic product.

“The World Food Program monitors food prices, including the average food basket of 2,100 calories per day,” said the representative of the World Food Program in Iraq, Abdul Rahman Megaj, in a statement reported by the official Al-Sabah newspaper, which was seen by the information.

Megaj added,  He continued, “The World Food Program is working during the current year to reach 849,000 people across Iraq , through monthly support for the most vulnerable people, building resilience and school feeding programs, in addition to government support, including digitization and reform of the public distribution system for rations Food, as the work of the World Food Program is expanding in the south of the country, where poverty indicators are among the worst. The poverty rate in Iraq is about 31.7%.

He revealed, “The average price of the food basket has increased by 14% since the devaluation and is expected to remain at a new high level, which will directly affect the food security of the vulnerable population in Iraq , especially the displaced, returnees, refugees and other vulnerable Iraqis.”

The representative of the program stated that “it is necessary to support imports of basic foodstuffs, to help reduce the impact of devaluation on the purchasing power of vulnerable Iraqis, and it will also be necessary to formulate policies to increase the contribution to GDP from sectors other than oil, and to reduce economic dependence on Oil exports by boosting domestic food production.

Regarding the ration card items, he explained that “according to the recommendations of the National White Book for Iraq, the focus of the public distribution system on the most vulnerable people will be necessary to increase the efficiency and effectiveness of the system, and thus support the most needy families by providing the required foodstuffs monthly without interruption.” He pointed out that “data-based decision-making and policy planning are also important and it is necessary to monitor food security at the national level and early warning systems, link main data sets and determine when action is required, which will allow Iraq to respond proactively to food security needs.”

The representative of the United Nations World Food Program in Iraq said, “Although the government has taken appropriate measures, humanitarian and development actors in the country also need to increase efforts to mitigate the impact of devaluation on vulnerable groups. Additional support from countries will also be needed. The donor at this time”. LINK

************

Samson:  Al-Fath: We are surprised at the financial and central submission to the pressure of the International Monetary Fund regarding the dollar exchange rate

15:30 – 13/03/2021

On Saturday, the Al-Fateh Alliance criticized the central bank and the Finance Ministry’s submission to the pressures exerted by the International Monetary Fund regarding not raising the dollar exchange rates.

A member of the coalition, Hamid Al-Mousawi, said in a statement to Al-Maaloumah Agency, that “there are internal parties that do not consider the disastrous effects that the collective refusal to keep exchange rates will be the same,” stressing that “these parties put pressure on the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank to keep prices. The exchange as it is for personal purposes and mono benefits.

He added, “The insistence of the financial authorities in the state to keep the exchange rates as they are without serious and real scientific and economic study has caused the delay of many works and projects that are awaiting the citizen who has fallen victim to ill-considered government decisions.”

He noted that “this insistence pushed the government to find solutions to compensate the contractors who were affected by the high exchange rates in addition to the small sectors that are close to collapse.” He pointed out that “government losses in light of the current exchange rates will be greater and will exhaust future budgets, and we have presented evidence and evidence in this regard.”  LINK

Samson:  Iraq loses European oil markets in favor of two Asian countries

03/13/2021 00:31:09

The American “Oil Price” website said that Iraq began to lose its share in European oil markets as a result of relying more on Asian buyers, especially China and India.

The site stated that the average share of Asian countries from Iraqi exports has increased steadily over the past three years, reaching about 80 percent of Iraq’s exports through its southern fields in 2020. The site compared this percentage to what was exported during the past period, which included 60 percent in 2017, and 65 percent in 2018 and 71 percent in 2019.

The report revealed that China and India Asthozta on about two – thirds of Iraq’s daily exports of oil, an average of two million barrels per day {1.05 million to China, and 0.9 million for India}. And the Ministry of Oil announced that the country’s exports of crude rose to 2.96 million barrels per day in February, from 2.868 million barrels per day in the previous month. The ministry added that exports from Basra ports in southern Iraq amounted to 2.825 million barrels per day in February, up from 2.77 million barrels per day in January.

Iraq, the second largest producer in OPEC, relies on oil exports to collect almost all of the state’s revenues. It was severely affected by the decline in crude prices last year and had difficulty paying the wages of public sector workers. Iraq’s oil revenues increased in February to $ 5 billion at an average price of $ 60.33 a barrel, compared to an average price of $ 53.294 in January. LINK

************

Samson:  Who are the winners and losers from higher oil and commodity prices?

13th March, 2021

You might think that the world has made its way out of the Coronavirus pandemic, it might just be good news for governments and economies. Nevertheless, the rise in the prices of energy, minerals, and the resulting crops highlights the strengths of some and the weaknesses of others

Oil has jumped 75% since the beginning of last November with the start of major economies vaccinating their residents and reopening their doors after the pandemic led to the closure of factories and the suspension of aircraft. Copper, used in everything from cars to washing machines to wind turbines, is trading at levels last seen a decade ago, and food prices have jumped every month since May last year

The rise has been a boon for exporters, as the influx of funds is a welcome relief to energy giants such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, as their leadership faces domestic challenges that must be addressed but there are always two sides to trade. Some countries that depend on imports are feeling the pressure in the bond and currency markets. The rise in fuel prices cost the head of the Brazilian state oil company a loss of his job, and prices led India – the third largest importer of crude in the world – to call on the “OPEC +” alliance to increase oil production, and the inflation rate in Turkey rose to more than 15%

Goldman Sachs and some of its Wall Street competitors are talking about a super-bullish cycle for new commodities. This raises concerns of more harmful inflation in the future, and richer countries are not immune either and in the United Kingdom, the government is backtracking on increasing the gasoline tax so as not to anger drivers exhausted by the pandemic-induced lockdown.  In the United States, Texas oil exploration companies and corn belt farmers (in the US Midwest, where the corn crop is used to produce methane) could benefit, although others, including tech billionaires, come under pressure. Elon Musk appealed to mining companies to extract more nickel, a metal he needs to make batteries for electric cars for Tesla

Winners

The lockdowns and decline in commodities in the past year have weighed on Australia, which experienced its first recession in nearly three decades. But the government could see unexpected gains in 2021. Sales of iron ore, which is its largest export, hit a record last December, while wheat sales are close to the same level; Livestock farmers are struggling to keep up with the demand for beef. The Australian dollar has performed better than any other major currency since the end of last November, rising 5% against the US dollar.

Not everything is easy to navigate; The diplomatic row has caused China to ban Australian goods ranging from charcoal to copper, syrup, and lobster (known as lobster). However, iron ore is excluded from the ban, because Beijing cannot obtain enough steel components anywhere. This helped ensure that the trade war cost Australia only about $ 3 billion last year, a small sum for a country whose shipments to China ballooned from about $ 5 billion a year at the start of the century to $ 120 billion

The relative strength of Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, was also evident in the financial markets. The peso is the only major currency in Latin America that rose against the dollar during the past three months, and it was among the most prosperous currencies in the world. The pandemic has pitted the country against a threat, as it has suffered months of violent demonstrations due to social injustice and the rising cost of living. The virus then turned global trade on its head, and posed the biggest economic challenge to Chile since its return to democracy three decades ago, and copper prices plummeted.

The deflation did not last long, as Chinese factories returned to work after the Lunar New Year holiday, and with red metal prices rising above $ 4 a pound for the first time in nearly a decade, Chile’s financial conditions began to improve, and copper exports reached $ 3.9 billion in February, an increase of 42. % For the previous month

The same can be said for Zambia, which relies on copper for nearly 80% of export earnings. The country was in desperate need of money after it became the first country in Africa to default on Eurobonds after the outbreak of the pandemic. President Edgar Longo faces his re-election battle in August, and is trying to obtain a bailout from the International Monetary Fund, restructure Chinese loans, and stop rising food prices, which caused inflation to accelerate to 22%. The state bought Glencore’s domestic operations in January at a price that seems more and more like an affordable price. Global investors are becoming more optimistic, and Zambia’s dollar debt has risen the most this year among the nearly 75 emerging markets tracked by Bloomberg Barclays indices

All the oil-producing countries suffered in the past year, but Iraq emerged among them; Its economy has declined by about 11%, more than any other major oil exporter, according to the International Monetary Fund. The government was unable to pay teachers ‘and civil servants’ salaries on time, and Iraqis took to the streets to protest against power cuts, dilapidated hospital services, dilapidated roads, and a lack of jobs. The situation caused problems for “OPEC”, of which Iraq is the second largest oil producer. Other members, including Saudi Arabia, criticized Baghdad for failing to cut production enough, while the organization tried to support prices

With the recovery of the crude oil market, Iraq’s monthly financial revenues rose to $ 5 billion from about $ 3 billion in the second quarter of 2020. It is still far below what is needed to balance the state budget, but there is clear relief

Losers

China may be a big producer of everything from oil and zinc to food, but it is also the most important commodity buyer, and was almost single-handedly responsible for the last super-climb that ended nearly a decade ago. The rapid recovery of the world’s second largest economy from the outbreak of the Coronavirus epidemic is one of the main reasons for the high prices of energy, minerals and agricultural commodities this time. The rise could only continue until now, before Chinese President Xi Jinping and the ruling Communist Party intervened. The issue of food security and pork prices appeared prominently during the annual parliamentary ceremony in China – the National People’s Congress – this month. The government announced a five-year roadmap to boost crop and livestock production

As the largest buyer of wheat in the world, and as a net importer of oil; Egypt suffers badly whenever the price of basic commodities rises. It is also politically sensitive. Because millions of people depend on subsidized bread. The Arab Spring uprisings erupted a decade ago in part due to the increase in food costs, which led to the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak from power who had ruled for a long time. So far, the government of President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi has managed to stem inflation. Egypt is trying to protect itself from rising oil costs by buying more hedge contracts in the market, and foreign investors are still buying up local bonds. But GDP will recover by only 2.9% this year, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts, which is about half the level expected for the global economy

Rising food and fuel prices have already sparked social unrest in Pakistan. Opposition parties held nationwide rallies last year to demand that Prime Minister Imran Khan resign. His government responded by increasing the salaries of state employees by 25% last month however, the pressure has rarely subsided, with Khan narrowing to victory in a vote of confidence in Parliament this month. The economic impact of business closures and social restrictions to limit the spread of the virus will only worsen if goods continue to rise, in addition to the import bill for Pakistan, which produces barely any oil or minerals of its own

If big countries like Egypt and Pakistan are struggling in a commodity boom, then there is no need to think about smaller places on the map. The Dominican Republic may be the largest economy in the Caribbean, but its GDP is barely greater than the state of “New Hampshire”, and high fuel prices hit before the main tourism sector has a chance to recover from the pandemic. The country with a population of 11 million people is highly dependent on imports. Other than petrol, diesel and vehicle fuel, it has to receive shipments of natural gas, coal, and fuel oil to meet the bulk of power generation. It has responded to the previous boom in commodity prices with food subsidies, which may be difficult this time given its onerous financial resources.

The country’s dollar bonds have slipped by 9% this year, making it one of the worst performing emerging market countries   LINK

Tags: /