Vietnam:
Henig: Positive signs for Vietnam’s labour market
07:00 | 08/02/2023
Vietnam will continue to be affected by a labour shortage in the first and second quarters of 2023, but the deficit is not great and is mainly present in labour-intensive sectors such as garments, leather, and some export-led industries, especially in foreign-invested enterprises.
In the meantime, there is a demand for about 350,000-400,000 highly skilled workers. As the economic situation is projected to continue improving, the labour market is expected to recover and the demand for workers will rise again.
According to the Ho Chi Minh City Human Resources Forecast and Labour Market Information Centre, nearly 70% of the demand for new workers in 2023 will come from the services sector, while the remaining 30% will come from industry and construction.
Regarding educational levels, the demand for workers with college and university degrees accounts for nearly 38%.
In 2023, enterprises will look for flexible candidates who can take on any new job, said employment experts, adding that employers will offer new benefits to their workers.
According to Minister of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs Dao Ngoc Dung, Vietnam’s labour market is relatively stable now in terms of both size and quality and the shortage only affects some sectors.
Source: NDO LINK
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Henig: Despite decelerating, phone exports still have long-term prospects
February, 08/2023 – 09:11
Phones and components achieved an export turnover of US$57.9 billion last year, a year-on-year increase of only 0.8 per cent.
HÀ NỘI — The export of phones and components increased by less than 1 per cent year-on-year and is forecast to continue to face difficulties this year due to the impact of inflation in many countries around the world.
Phones and components achieved an export turnover of US$57.9 billion last year, a year-on-year increase of only 0.8 per cent, according to the latest data from the General Department of Customs.
Exports to China reached $16.26 billion, up 7.1 per cent; to the US reached $11.88 billion, up 22.5 per cent; to the EU reached $6.7 billion, down 15.1 per cent; to South Korea reached $5.05 billion, up 5.3 per cent.
The phone exports grew slowly in the last months of last year, when export orders declined sharply due to the impact of economic slowdown and inflation in many major import markets of the country such as the US, EU, and Japan.
Particularly in December, the export turnover of this item reached $3.1 billion, down 31.4 per cent from the previous month.
A report by HSBC said that after more than two years of booming trade, a period of “stagnation” has come to Vietnamese key export industries since the fourth quarter of last year.
Global orders fell sharply, affecting Asian exporters and Việt Nam was no exception.
Among the key export sectors of Việt Nam, including textiles, footwear, computers, furniture, mobile phone export has the largest influence.
Accounting for an increasingly large proportion (over 17 per cent) of the country’s total export turnover, the growth of phones and components has a great influence on the overall export growth.
However, over 95 per cent of the export turnover of this product belongs to FDI enterprises.
HSBC pointed out that the reason for the decline in exports in the last month of last year came from the electronics sector, which accounts for about 35 per cent of Việt Nam’s total export turnover.
New electronic orders in the world have begun to decline sharply from the second half of last year, affecting the consumer electronics sector more than industrial products.
The impact occurs on a large scale in the three main export destinations of Việt Nam, the US, China and Europe.
Exports are still facing “headwinds” in the first month of the new year and it is forecast that the drag on exports will at least last until the end of the second quarter.
The export turnover of phones reached US$4 billion last month, down 19.6 per cent over the same period.
Việt Nam was badly affected when global trade slowed, seeing its exports drop significantly for the first time compared to the past two years.
In particular, the decline stems from the economic downturn in the US, the largest export destination of Việt Nam, followed by the EU.
Although decelerating, in the medium and long term, the phone and component manufacturing industry is still “leading” in terms of exports, because up to now, this field has attracted a huge amount of FDI into production.
Samsung alone has accumulated capital in Việt Nam reaching $18.2 billion.
In recent years, the electronics and phone manufacturing industry has had many opportunities to welcome the investment wave from large technology corporations to move to Việt Nam.
A series of large outsourcing partners of Apple and LG such as Foxconn, Luxshare, GoerTek, and Compal all have factories located in Việt Nam or have relocated from China, creating an increasingly large production and supply capacity, making Việt Nam an important export address in the production chain of this industry on the global map.
The export turnover of the group of phones and components increased by 9.2 times from 2010 to 2013, becoming the group with the highest export value and this position has been maintained continuously since 2013.
When Việt Nam became the world’s new production base, billions of dollars of FDI inflows from global corporations and businesses poured in, along with extensive opening and integration with the world through a system of free trade agreements (FTA), the export value of key manufacturing industries from phones and components increased every year.
In the two years of 2021 – 2022, although the economy was greatly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, this group of goods still achieved a high and stable growth rate, and the export value continued to grow sharply, reaching $57.5 and $57.9 billion respectively, accounting for over 17 per cent of total export turnover.
— VNS LINK
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Henig: Bond market remains quiet this year: VCBS
February, 08/2023 – 09:12
The scale of debt in the corporate bond market is less than 15 per cent of GDP.
HÀ NỘI — The value of corporate bonds maturing in 2023 is estimated at VNĐ250 trillion, falling sharply compared to the third quarter of 2022.
The scale of debt in the corporate bond market is less than 15 per cent of GDP. Particularly, private corporate bonds make up 12.5 per cent of GDP, equivalent to VNĐ1.19 quadrillion, which is still a modest amount compared to other countries in the region and also far from the target set by 2025.
However, with the developments of the market last year, Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS) said that professional bond investors were unlikely to return to the market this year.
The securities firm expected the size of the market to continue to shrink this year due to Decree 65’s restrictions on new issuance and restructured issuance, and high new issuance costs. In addition, the volume of bonds bought back before maturity also reduces the market’s overall size.
Other reasons are the medium-term maturity pressure on the market due to large maturity volume, low possibility of new issuance and existing interest rate uptrend.
According to VCBS estimates, the volume of corporate bonds maturing in 2023 is estimated at VNĐ250 trillion, a significant decrease compared to the third quarter of 2022 due to the proactive repurchase before maturity.
In particular, the acquisition value of the banking and real estate industries in the fourth quarter reached VNĐ35 trillion and VNĐ24 trillion, respectively.
However, the trend of repurchasing before maturity helps enterprises and issuers be more proactive in bond capital payment demand. The move also shows significant efforts to arrange capital, and reduce pressure on bond maturity in the near future.
Moreover, high interest rate base and low investors’ confidence in the corporate bond market will make the market less appealing when considering risks and benefits.
For institutional investors, the investment demand for corporate bonds is also forecast to decrease as risk levels are expected to rise and the government bond investment channel has returned to an attractive valuation compared to many years ago, causing a fall in the competitiveness of the corporate bond channel.
In 2023, the inspection and supervision activities of issuing bonds in large quantities, without collateral, and using capital for improper purposes, will affect the offering and issuance listing and trading activities. And securities investment and stock market will still be boosted.
2023 is also the year to accelerate the restructuring activities of bonds that will be due soon.
In general, VCBS believes that the corporate bond market will continue to be in a quiet period with low liquidity.
— VNS LINK
Henig: Industrial production: Achievements and lessons
06:00 | 08/02/2023
(VEN) – The 2022 industrial output has been impressive, but continued innovation as well as production and supply network recovery are vital to ensure a more sustainable path in 2023.
Industrial output surge
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT), industrial production faced numerous challenges in 2022 owing to a rise in raw material and logistics costs, and a decline in global demand for some non-essential consumer goods, among other factors. Many other essential industries, however, are still blooming.
The industrial output index climbed by 8.6 percent in the first 11 months of 2022 compared to the same period last year, with the production index of several significant sectors experiencing a notable surge. Beverage production rose 31 percent; clothing, 16.4 percent; leather, 16.7 percent; drugs and pharmaceuticals, 17.5 percent; machinery and equipment, 16.3 percent; wood and bamboo made products, 18.4 percent; electrical equipment, 12.8 percent.
Electronic items, particularly mobile phones, contribute the most to Vietnam’s total export value. Instead of only making mobile phones, Vietnam is expanding its supply chain and becoming more involved in the value chain.
On November 25, 2022, for the first time in history, VinFast transported 999 VF 8 electric cars to the United States, affirming the domestic auto industry’s production capability and product quality and its capacity to participate and compete in the global value chain.
Pham Tuan Anh, Deputy Director of the MoIT’s Industry Agency, said that in order to secure sufficient raw materials for production and consumption, his department was focused on removing bottlenecks and aiding enterprises in locating alternative sources at competitive costs.
(VEN) – The 2022 industrial output has been impressive, but continued innovation as well as production and supply network recovery are vital to ensure a more sustainable path in 2023.
Industrial output surge
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT), industrial production faced numerous challenges in 2022 owing to a rise in raw material and logistics costs, and a decline in global demand for some non-essential consumer goods, among other factors. Many other essential industries, however, are still blooming.
The industrial output index climbed by 8.6 percent in the first 11 months of 2022 compared to the same period last year, with the production index of several significant sectors experiencing a notable surge. Beverage production rose 31 percent; clothing, 16.4 percent; leather, 16.7 percent; drugs and pharmaceuticals, 17.5 percent; machinery and equipment, 16.3 percent; wood and bamboo made products, 18.4 percent; electrical equipment, 12.8 percent.
Electronic items, particularly mobile phones, contribute the most to Vietnam’s total export value. Instead of only making mobile phones, Vietnam is expanding its supply chain and becoming more involved in the value chain.
On November 25, 2022, for the first time in history, VinFast transported 999 VF 8 electric cars to the United States, affirming the domestic auto industry’s production capability and product quality and its capacity to participate and compete in the global value chain.
Pham Tuan Anh, Deputy Director of the MoIT’s Industry Agency, said that in order to secure sufficient raw materials for production and consumption, his department was focused on removing bottlenecks and aiding enterprises in locating alternative sources at competitive costs.
In 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will focus on developing human resources, speeding up the adoption of cutting-edge technologies, helping businesses through digital transformation, and fostering the growth of smart production in strategic, pioneering, and priority sectors.
Lan Anh LINK
