Fears over the economy are set to remain to the fore amid worries that the Federal Reserve may have left interest rates elevated for too long, allowing them to hurt growth. More high-profile earnings reports are due and oil prices look set to remain volatile amid a combination of recession fears and geopolitical risks. Here’s your look at what’s happening in markets for the week ahead.
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U.S. data, Fed speakers
After Friday’s weak July jobs report stoked fears over the prospect of a recession the economic calendar for the week ahead is considerably lighter.
The Institute of Supply Management releases its service sector index on Monday which is expected to point to modest growth.
Investors will get a fresh update on the state of the labor market on Thursday, with the weekly report on initial jobless claims, which are expected to pull back just slightly from an almost one-year high.
Investors will also get a chance to hear from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin after the central bank kept rates on hold last week, but left the door open for a September rate cut.
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More earnings
While most of the mega cap companies have already reported some high-profile earnings results are expected in the coming days.
Results from industrial bellwether Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) and media and entertainment giant Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) will give more insight into the health of manufacturing and the consumer. Also reporting are healthcare heavyweights, including weight-loss drugmaker Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) and Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI), which is at the center of the market’s artificial intelligence excitement.
U.S. stocks sold off for a second day on Friday, pushing the Nasdaq Composite into correction territory as indications that the economy is slowing stoked fears that the Fed has waited too long to cut rates.
Adding to the downward pressure was a drop in Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) after quarterly results and disappointing forecasts.
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China outlook
Investors will get an update on how the economic recovery in China is shaping up in the second half of the year with a slew of economic releases this week.
The week begins with a private-sector survey on services activity, followed by trade data on Wednesday and a reading on consumer prices at the end of the week.
Recent data has pointed to a gloomy outlook for the world’s number two economy, and recent surprise rate cuts have reflected a growing sense of urgency in Beijing’s efforts to shore up growth.
Officials will be keeping an especially close eye on Friday’s inflation number for clues on how much more needs to be done to boost lackluster domestic demand.
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Reserve Bank of Australia decision
The RBA is expected to keep interest rates on hold at its upcoming policy meeting on Tuesday after data last month showed that core inflation unexpectedly slowed to a two-year low in the second quarter and the rate of economic growth moderated in the first quarter.
Market participants will be focusing on the central banks forward guidance with markets pricing in a 70% probability of an easing in interest rates by the end of the year should inflation continue to slow.
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Oil prices
Oil prices fell on Friday, settling at their lowest since January as weak economic data out of the U.S. and top oil importer China raised worries over the demand outlook.
The soft U.S. jobs report coupled with weakening manufacturing activity in China sent prices lower on the risk that a sluggish global economic recovery would weigh on oil consumption.
Oil investors are also watching the Middle East, where Lebanon’s Iran-backed group Hezbollah said its conflict with Israel had entered a new phase.
Meanwhile, an OPEC+ meeting last Thursday left the group’s oil output policy unchanged, including a plan to start unwinding one layer of production cuts from October.
–Reuters contributed to this report
