BRICS: China continues to dominate within the alliance
The creation of BRICS, which originally included Brazil, Russia, India and China, can be traced back to a 2001 publication by Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neill.
O’Neill’s assumption was that these countries are on the verge of playing a significant role in the global economy – a prediction that was borne out by China’s significant contribution to global GDP growth from 2012 to 2022.
Formally established in 2009 and later renamed BRICS in 2010 after the inclusion of South Africa, the bloc’s trade process has been uneven, favoring China primarily. While recent trade growth has been driven by India’s economic acceleration, bilateral trade between BRICS members other than China remains minimal.
China’s economic dominance, combined with its assertive foreign policy, has cemented its importance within BRICS, with member states often aligning themselves with China’s position in international forums such as the United Nations. China has been advocating the expansion of BRICS to BRICS+ to strengthen the representation of the developing world in the group, despite the heterogeneous nature of the invited countries.
In the context of BRICS expansion, challenges arise related to the alignment and objectives of the organization. The group is pushing for reforms in the world’s financial and political institutions, aiming for greater inclusiveness and efficiency. BRICS seeks to become a platform for developing countries to voice their concerns and promote rules-based global trade, as evidenced by the endorsement of local currencies in trade and support for transparent trade policies.
The impact of BRICS enlargement depends on internal dynamics and on the reactions of the West. The evolving trajectory of China’s power and perceptions of it among member states, especially India, pose significant considerations for the group’s future. Despite its origins as an economic coalition, BRICS has become a key geopolitical structure that presents both a challenge and an opportunity given China’s centrality and the diversity of its members.
The future trajectory of BRICS remains uncertain, given its economic dependence on China and changing sentiments toward the country among its members. India’s rapid growth and growing geopolitical influence bring additional difficulties, potentially altering the dynamics of the China-centric BRICS.
