Dinar Explainer 1: Why Iraq has Two Exchange Rates

The three reasons why Iraq has two exchange rates are:

1. Excessive Demand for US Dollars Internationally:

There is a high demand for US dollars in countries like Iran and Syria, where local currencies have significantly devalued. Entities in these countries are desperate to obtain dollars, which are accepted everywhere and difficult to trace.

The excessive demand for US dollars internationally is driven by several factors:

1. 1. Currency Devaluation in Neighboring Countries:
      • The Iranian rial has lost 75% of its value due to sanctions from the US and other nations.
      • The Syrian pound has lost 99% of its value primarily due to the ongoing civil war.
      • These significant devaluations have led entities in Iran and Syria to seek more stable currencies like the US dollar.
   2. Preference for Physical Dollars:
      • There is a particular demand for physical US dollars (paper currency) rather than electronic funds transfers (EFTs). Physical dollars are preferred because they are accepted everywhere and are impossible to trace, making them more desirable for transactions that may need to avoid scrutiny.
   3. Cheaper Source of Dollars in Iraq:
      • Due to these devaluations and economic instability, Iran and Syria find it more feasible to obtain dollars from Iraq. The Iraqi market offers a cheaper source of dollars, requiring fewer real resources compared to other regions.

These factors collectively create a significant international demand for US dollars, which in turn impacts Iraq’s exchange rate dynamics by increasing the pressure on its currency system and contributing to the existence of dual exchange rates.

2. Internal Demand for Dollars:

Within Iraq, the dollar has dominated the dinar both as a medium of exchange and as a store of value. Although recent regulatory changes have reduced this dominance, the demand for dollars remains strong.

The internal demand for dollars in Iraq is driven by several key factors highlighted in the text:

1. 1. Dominance of the Dollar:
      • Historically, the US dollar has dominated the Iraqi dinar both as a medium of exchange and as a store of value. This dominance means that people prefer to use and hold dollars over the local currency, contributing to the internal demand for dollars.
   2. Regulatory Changes:
      • Although there have been recent regulatory changes aimed at reducing the dominance of the dollar, the demand remains strong. These changes have not been sufficient to shift the preference from dollars to dinars significantly.
   3. Economic Practices:
      • Iraq’s economy is still very much a cash economy. The Central Bank of Iraq estimated that there were 90 trillion dinars outside financial intermediaries, highlighting the extensive use of cash. This reliance on cash further underscores the preference for a stable currency like the dollar.
   4. Banking System Challenges:
      • The banking system in Iraq is underdeveloped. The state-owned banks are not private sector-oriented, with major banks like Rafidain and Rasheed facing difficulties. Additionally, Iraq is severely under-banked, with only four bank branches and five ATMs per 100,000 Iraqis, compared to the Middle East and Northern Africa average of 14 branches and 37 ATMs.
      • The lack of a universal core banking system, which makes it difficult to withdraw funds from a different branch than where the deposit was made, contributes to the preference for holding dollars.
   5. Insecurity of Deposits:
      • The perception that deposits have become more insecure has increased the demand for dollars. For instance, the suspension of dollar withdrawals starting January 1, 2024, has likely exacerbated concerns about the security and accessibility of funds, driving people to prefer holding dollars.

These factors collectively create a strong internal demand for dollars in Iraq, complicating efforts to manage the exchange rate and stabilize the economy.

3. De-Dollarization Efforts by the New York Fed:

The New York Federal Reserve has restricted dollar transfers to reduce dollar flows to Iran and Syria. They have also excluded over two dozen Iraqi banks from transactions, which has increased the complexity and demand for dollars in Iraq.

The de-dollarization efforts by the New York Federal Reserve (New York Fed) are part of a broader strategy to control the flow of US dollars, particularly to countries under sanctions such as Iran and Syria. Here are the key points from the text:

1. 1. Restriction on Dollar Transfers:
      • The New York Fed has restricted the transfer of physical dollars to Iraq. Previously, both electronic dollars (via electronic funds transfer, or EFT) and paper dollars could be sent to Iraq. Now, the New York Fed primarily allows only electronic transfers while restricting the shipment of actual paper dollars.
   2. Exclusion of Iraqi Banks:
      • Over two dozen Iraqi banks have been excluded from doing transactions with the New York Fed. The New York Fed will not transfer funds to these banks or respect their transactions. This exclusion is part of the effort to control the flow of dollars and reduce the likelihood that they will end up in countries like Iran and Syria.
   3. Objective of De-Dollarization:
      • The primary goal of these restrictions is to reduce dollar flows to Iran and Syria. By limiting access to physical dollars and restricting certain banks, the New York Fed aims to make it more difficult for these countries to obtain US dollars, which are in high demand due to the devaluation of their own currencies and economic sanctions.
   4. Impact on Iraq:
      • The de-dollarization efforts have significant implications for Iraq. The restriction on physical dollar transfers and the exclusion of certain banks have added to the complexity and demand for dollars within Iraq. These measures are part of the broader challenge facing the Iraqi government as it tries to manage its dual exchange rates and stabilize its economy.

These efforts by the New York Fed are part of a strategic initiative to use financial controls as a means of exerting economic pressure on countries like Iran and Syria, while also attempting to mitigate the impact on the Iraqi economy.