KTFA:
Samson: Egypt, Iraq and Saudi Arabia are on the way.. Why are these countries hoarding gold?
7th November, 2022
According to data published on Bloomberg, the increase in gold bullion purchases among many developing and emerging countries, including Egypt, Iraq and Turkey, this year compared to previous years, with the “declining confidence” in the global financial system, which is currently in place.
Analyst David Fickling wrote in an article in this regard that the World Gold Council reported that central banks around the world bought 400 metric tons of gold bullion in the quarter ending in September, which is a large number given that it is equivalent to the total purchases in a whole year in normal times.
The data found that central banks in emerging economies were the world’s largest buyers of gold in previous years. Topping the list is Russia, which has bought 463 tons since 2018 until now, and Turkey, which only bought about 95 metric tons this year, followed by India, Poland, Kazakhstan, China, Hungary, Thailand, Japan, Azerbaijan, Brazil, Uzbekistan, Egypt, Qatar, Iraq and Singapore. The writer says that Turkey, whose lira fell by 52 percent this year, bought 95 tons, and Egypt bought 44.4 metric tons of a total of 48.6 tons between 2018 and this year, while its pound depreciated by 20 percent. It is also remarkable that Qatar bought 15.6 tons, this year, out of a total of 42.7, and Iraq bought 33.9 tons in 2022, out of a total of 40.5 in five years.
Although the Iraqi dinar is stable against the dollar, the credit default swap (CDS), which protects against non-payment of its debts, rose to about 9 percent in September, even after it bought 33.9 tons of the metal. India bought 40.5 tons as the rupee weakened by 8.7 percent.
The writer points out that the 10-year US Treasury bond, which currently yields a yield of 4.2 percent, seems a much better option than gold, which pays no interest, especially now that it no longer outperforms the total returns on government debt. US government debt was previously a risk-free investment, before it turned around last February, when sanctions on the Russian Central Bank led to the loss of most of the $498 billion in reserves on its balance sheet. And Bloomberg News reported last week that the European Union is now looking at using the money to pay for Ukraine’s rebuilding.
In this situation, “in a world where it is difficult to trust anyone, it makes sense to protect yourself through the metals market,” according to the author. From this perspective, Turkey and Egypt’s purchases have become a focus, and although the two countries are major allies of the United States, their relations with it have deteriorated significantly over the past decade, and their governments have found themselves “more simplistic with the rising authoritarian powers.” And the path ahead of international relations is more unclear now than it has been for decades, “and it makes sense in this world that central bank reserves should not be so tightly bound by relations with any one country.”
The report says that the advertised buyers represent only about 120 metric tons, from the 400 metric tons bought by central banks in the third quarter, but “you can get a good idea of the other candidates, by looking at the countries that have run the largest current account surpluses, namely the balances that governments use to buy their foreign exchange reserves. Outside of Europe, the biggest players are countries whose “relations with the United States are eroding, such as China, Russia and Saudi Arabia.” The dollar remains the main intermediate currency so far, with about 88 percent of monetary transactions involving the dollar this year. However, the dollar’s share in central bank reserves is rapidly declining from 65 percent at the end of 2016, to 59 percent earlier this year. LINK
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