The looming office-real-estate crash will be worse than the Global Financial Crisis decline, Fitch says
- The decline of office values could match or exceed 2008-era depreciation, Fitch Ratings said.
- If office real estate were to recover, it would be a more protracted rebound.
- The delinquency rate of mortgage-backed securities backed by office loans will more than double this year.
The plunge in US office values could match or exceed 2008’s real estate fallout, as prices have yet to bottom out, Fitch Ratings wrote in a note on Wednesday.
Office values have dropped an estimated 35% so far this cycle. While that’s still above the 47% plunge witnessed during the Great Financial Crisis, the latest situation offers no reason to expect the descent to slow.
“In contrast, property values had recovered to roughly 80% of their pre-crisis peak in this same timeframe following the GFC, having regained approximately half of their value declines,” the ratings agency wrote.
