TNT:
Tishwash: Report: The departure of the United Nations mission from Iraq is an important step for the Sudanese government
A report today, Friday, explained that the departure of the United Nations mission present in Iraq at the end of this month of May is a step of great importance to Iraqi sovereignty and to the government of Prime Minister Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sudani.
The report, which was published by the newspaper in English, and translated by Mail, stated, “The call to end the mission of the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq is part of a larger effort made by Baghdad to change the image of Iraq and direct it to an era that focuses on normal bilateral relations with other countries and international institutions.”
Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative at Chatham House, said, “The veneer of sovereignty is important for the government of Prime Minister Muhammad Shiaa al-Sudani,” noting that “Baghdad wants to show that this is not the same Iraq that witnessed a civil war, rebellions, or all of these types of conflicts that… “I have represented the country for the past few years, but this is a new chapter.”
He added, “This is also why the Sudanese government hopes to renegotiate the presence of international forces present in Iraq as part of the anti-ISIS coalition.”
Moreover, Baghdad believes that the presence of special UN oversight and officials reporting to the Security Council on its often embarrassing local dynamics hampers its strategy .
Other countries, which of course have their own problems, are not subject to similar reporting requirements .
Last year, Baghdad requested a strategic review of UNAMI activities as part of a one-year extension of the mission’s mandate. This led to the visit of former UN official Volker Perthes to Iraq in November. He met with a wide range of actors across the country to assess the Mission’s activities and future.
Al-Sudani’s letter in April was a response to the strategic review’s activities and conclusions. It objected to the fact that Peretz met with officials and figures from outside the Government of Iraq, including party officials and members of the Kurdistan Regional Government and civil society, and demanded a shorter timetable for the closure of the UN mission and the cessation of its activities. To be limited to non-political jobs.
Mansour pointed out that “there is a great debate about the role of the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq, but not everyone agrees with the government in Baghdad that the mission’s political activities are no longer needed . “
The report continued, “The end of the mandate of the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq will not mean that Iraq is completely ending United Nations activities in the country . “
Mansour said, “This is a symbolic effort on the part of the government to present the country as a sovereign state that does not need a UN mission, nor does it need to hold a briefing to the UN Security Council every three months.”
Some members of the international community have expressed their fear of ending the mission, albeit in diplomatic language.
The United States is a particularly important actor because it has the pen on Iraqi issues in the Security Council, which means it leads negotiations and drafts resolutions. This will be important in the coming weeks link
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Tishwash: In light of the Middle East conflict, the World Bank expects oil prices to exceed $100
The World Bank said on Friday that disruption of oil supplies if the conflict escalates in the Middle East could lead to higher global inflation rates.
The bank said in a report published today that a severe price disruption could lead to oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel, which would increase inflation in 2024 by about one percentage point.
He added that the continuation of geopolitical tensions over the past two years led to a rise in the prices of oil and many other commodities even as global growth slowed. For example, the price of Brent crude jumped to $91 per barrel earlier this month, about $34 per barrel more than the average for the 2015-2019 period.
The bank’s forecasts indicate that Brent crude prices will reach $84 per barrel on average in 2024 before falling to $79 on average in 2025, assuming there are no disruptions to oil supplies due to the conflict. But if conflict in the Middle East escalates, these unrest could push global inflation rates higher.
The report added, “If minor disturbances occur, it may lead to raising the average price of Brent crude to $92 per barrel during the current year.”
According to the report, severe unrest could lead oil prices to exceed $100 per barrel, raising global inflation in 2024 by about one percentage point.
The report also noted that the average price of gold – a popular choice for investors looking for a “safe haven” – is expected to reach a record level in 2024 before declining slightly in 2025.
Gold enjoys a special status among assets, and its price often rises during periods of uncertainty in geopolitical conditions and public policies, including conflicts.
The bank stated that, strong demand from several central banks in developing countries, coupled with increasing geopolitical challenges, is expected to boost gold prices throughout 2024.
The report indicates that the escalation of conflict in the Middle East could also lead to higher prices for natural gas, fertilizers and food, and the region is an important supplier of gas – 20% of the global trade volume of liquefied natural gas passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
The bank warned that if LNG supplies are cut off, fertilizer prices will also rise significantly, which will likely lead to higher food prices.
According to World Bank forecasts, food prices will generally fall somewhat – by 6% in 2024 and 4% in 2025. Fertilizer prices are expected to fall by 22% in 2024 and 6% in 2025.
The bank’s report pointed out that the acceleration of investment in green technology has led to a strengthening of the prices of key metals, which are critical to the global transition to clean energy.
Copper prices – the main component used in electricity grid infrastructure and the electric vehicle industry – rose to their highest level in two years this month, according to the report.
The World Bank added that it is expected to rise by 5% in 2024 before stabilizing in 2025. Aluminum prices are expected to rise by 2% in 2024 and 4% in 2025, supported in particular by the production of electric cars, solar panels and other products. Renewable energy infrastructure. link
