Predictions before the US presidential debate had Donald Trump slightly ahead, but things ended with Trump dealing a knockout blow to Joe Biden.
The outcome of the debate opens up all scenarios for the foreseeable future.
Democrats are in a state of panic, as described by the American press, while at the same time there is a growing state of anxiety in the American government circles described as “deep” about Trump’s return again.
This is evidenced by the persistent efforts to convince Biden to step down to lead a new democracy, so that the party does not lose the next elections.
With the end of Trump’s first term (2017-2021), questions arose about the reasons why some influential forces in the United States preferred that Trump not return to the White House again.
At the time, the talk focused on the radical changes that the United States had witnessed in its foreign and domestic policy in recent years.
Since then, Trump’s supporters have been talking about the “ongoing conspiracy” aimed at depriving him of a second return to the White House, and they even present evidence and signs that some consider conclusive proof of this trend.
Among them are several states amending their election laws to reduce turnout among Trump’s popular base, especially in states that were battlegrounds for the 2020 election. There is also the premeditation and deliberate intent to tarnish his reputation and reduce his political opportunities by initiating financial and personal cases related to his business and financial practices before and during his presidency. Indeed, a jury in New York convicted former President Donald Trump on all 34 charges against him in a case of illegal payments of money.
There is much more evidence that Trump supporters are promoting, including negative media coverage aimed at shaping a negative image of him in the minds of voters, in addition to censorship of social media, which is seen as part of a larger effort to silence him and prevent his messages from reaching his audience.
Behind-the-scenes influence
Regardless of the logic of what Trump supporters are promoting, the data left behind by the CNN debate indicates the existence of a wide network of individuals and institutions that exercise great influence behind the scenes, making strenuous efforts to stand in the way of Trump’s return for several reasons:
First: Trump’s decisions during his term have raised a lot of controversy, as he took an unconventional approach to dealing with many internal and external issues. This approach was represented in not consulting traditional institutions, which led to a shake in trust between him and many government agencies.
Second: The Trump administration has adopted an “America First” approach, ignoring many international agreements and alliances that previous administrations considered the cornerstone of American foreign policy, which has raised concerns among many security and diplomatic institutions that consider global stability and preserving international relations to be priorities.
Third: There is a gap between the White House and the Pentagon on international security issues, such as withdrawing from the nuclear agreement with Iran, imposing restrictions on immigration, and withdrawing from military alliances, which was reducing the role of the United States as a global power according to the Pentagon’s vision.
Fourth: Trump was known for his economic orientations, which aim to reduce the influence of large corporations on the US government, which makes it likely that economic blocs will work to prevent him from returning to the presidency because they see his policies as a threat to their interests.
Fifth: The tense relations with traditional allies such as the European Union and Canada, and the attempt to build friendly relations with regimes that the military establishment classifies as “hostile,” which deepened the gap of differences between him and the security services that preferred to stay away from his approach.
In addition to these factors, the Trump administration entered into a constant conflict with the mainstream media, some of which he described as “the enemy of the people,” and caused a kind of unrest within government institutions, as a result of the sudden dismissal decisions of many prominent officials.
In addition, Trump has adopted an approach that relies on appealing to the feelings of marginalized or angry masses, which contradicts the vision of the ruling elites and institutions that prefer stability and organized control.
Chances of returning again
The CNN debate strengthened Trump’s chances of winning because it allowed him to present his vision directly and effectively to a wide audience, which contributed to strengthening his image as a strong candidate capable of confronting various internal and external challenges.
Trump’s strong and clear performance during the debate won him additional support from voters looking for a decisive leader.
In addition, the debate may have helped highlight the weaknesses of his rivals, increasing his favorability among voters.
It cannot be overlooked that opinion polls prior to the debate showed strong support for Trump among the Republican Party base.
According to a Pew Research Center poll conducted in May 2024, about 60% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents favor Trump as the 2024 presidential nominee.
This support reflects the continued loyalty of his electoral base, which sees him as a symbol of conservative principles and an “America First” agenda.
The bottom line… Despite all the talk about him, Trump has been a landmark in American politics since the beginning of the new millennium. And day after day, he is increasing his chances of returning to the White House for a second time.
If service issues are the cornerstone of tipping the scales between candidates, in Trump’s case other factors – perhaps non-political – are crucial in determining whether he will come back or not.
rawabetcenter.com
