Zig’s Place Chatroom Discussion Late Tuesday 3-5-2024
Sheila THOUGHT THIS MIGHT BE OF INTEREST FOR YOU TO CHECK OUT AND VERIFY: VIDEO: FOREXLIVE.COM — ForexGirl comes into video about 1 hour into video — WATCH THE ENTIRE CONVERSATION WITH ForexGirl and Frank26 — https://www.youtube.com/live/L69tLJTL0ZU?si=0KK0_P9uTOxijeZ6 — https://www.forexlive.com/LiveCharts USD/IQD CURRENTLY TRADING @ 2.80 – MARCH 5, 2023
Sheila gotta get off to work, later all
Zig Trading at $2.80?…that makes no sense but I will investigate further.. Nothing to corroborate that
butterfly Zig It would be all over the news. CNBC would stop and report.
Zig Yeah
Dave 2.80…..CBI fails to mention that?
Dave do enjoy reading about a lop……. :wheelbarrel: that would be how monetary policy werks…..,.lol just checked EU sanction map….IRAQ…UN’s updates from yesterday https://sanctionsmap.eu/#/main
Zig Dave : I miss your little chats with Kap….lol
Dave deleting 3 zeros with no increase in value of the IQD when 1 iqd is worth less than 1 tenth of a cent…each 1 dollar note costs 5 cents to mint..would be economic suicide fer CBI
Dave them fils cost even more to produce – do agree with most everything else Kap states odd how Baghdad states them Kurds are corrupt and yet Kurds state much of the same…..similiar to them dems vs reps……
Zig lol….true
Dave just find me a nickle….i be happy
Zig Make that 25 cents….lol….not greedy but that’s not asking for a fortune….
Dave 1/15th of a cent to a Nickle…..very good profit
NORV sheila nonsense
Zig NORV : It is amazing that Frank has thousands of followers of his videos
Zig Look at this: FRANK26….3-4-24…….FOREXLIVE.COM
24K views Streamed 17 hours ago……………………………………..24,000 views!!!!!!!! :Thud:
NORV You can go to that link or any other and enter IQDUSD and you will the dinar valued where it should be.
Zig That rumor about the Dinar trading at $2.80 on Forex…..LOL That sucks people in
NORV I can post the dinar is $3 and everyone would post it as well. Doesn’t mean it’s true. Cbi.iq
NORV people need to realize the dinar will never RV. If it does anything at all, it will rise gradually over time as a result of Iraq’s economic growth and success. And that can’t happen until Iraq passes laws and significant investment and growth begins
NORV IMO, is it’s very likely that it could reach a nickel or a dime over the next few years if Iraq quits dragging their feet. People need to stop reading that BS though from idiots like Frank 26 and others. What’s Dave going to say when Iraq goes fully digital? There’ll be no wheelbarrows needed LOL
Zig: NORV is Kaperoni …You can still access some of his recent conference calls at https://www.youtube.com/ @TheAdminBob and also follow him at https://twitter.com/kaperoni
Dave NORV we have more atms in my small city than all of Iraq – digital…..here too, i like cash…….. what nation is devoid of all cash?
NORV ATMs are not that important in Iraq they only need to have ATMs if you want physical cash. They are going digital..that mean paperless. Swipe 💳 and go.
Dave we swipe here also
NORV Yup I can’t remember the last time I carried dollars. 💰
Dave POS exclusively? i deal in cash
NORV Nah, I do almost everything digital. Buy food, clothes, gas on my phone. GOOGLE pay works great. 👍
Dave folks sometimes pay me in cash…..means i dont have to answer to my wife
NORV The best part is you get better deals buying digital
Dave doubt it 1/2 of iraqis have bank accounts
NORV I get .35 cents gal off on gas 😆
Dave barter with a pos?
NORV Restaurants love digital purchase. Give great food discounts
Zig That’s point of sale….not piece of shit…..lol…..POS
Dave not here
NORV It’s everywhere Dave
NORV .the apps are the same. You just don’t know about it.
Dave wife pays when we go out
Zig I like cash too but it’s becoming old fashioned…..lol
NORV Go to the App Store and download an app for whatever you’re going to do or restaurant or store and you will notice that every one of them apps have discounts when you pay through their mobile app
Dave will inform the MRS.
NORV I just went to Arby’s the other day and got a French dip for $3. LOL everyone else pays $8
Zig Wow
NORV McDonald’s has a whole bunch of discounts when you use their mobile app two for one sandwiches, two for one shakes, free fries Etc
Dave MacDonalds aint food?
NORV I just bought baseball tickets the other day for $7 a piece through MLB app. Lol. No chance of that price using paper ……HOW?
NORV It takes time Dave
Dave What nation has done this
NORV 50% in last year is good
Dave guessing not sure Dave was about 1/3rd
NORV Give them another 2 years, everyone in Iraq will be digital
Dave too many mattress stuffers 2 yrs? guessing?
NORV Once convenience catches on people will convert just like here. Everybody got a smartphone in the matter of about 12 months
Dave Iraq has accomplished NODDA in terms of anything
NORV That’s not true. They just do everything at a very slow pace
Dave Banking laws fer foreign investments? HCL art 140? WTO? close….lol
NORV Just because they are not laws enacted does not mean they are doing nothing.
Dave yadda yadda
NORV When your rebuilding an entire country from the ground up and you’ve got tribes that don’t want progress, of course it’s going to take a long time
Dave NORV Just checked UNs website IRAQ still be ch7 really slow updating that banking freeze updated yesterday
NORV . I wouldn’t know. I haven’t been to the UN website in quite a while. Or do you mean IMF?
Dave https://sanctionsmap.eu/#/main scroll down to Iraq Which nation affiliated with IMF while under sanctions?
NORV NORV don’t see anything on UN chapter 7 In fact what I do see is no restrictions And their financial system is under the IMF and I don’t see any restrictions there either except for them still being in Article 14 by choice which is not a restriction.
NORV It’s a decision Iraq’s Central Bank has made which does affect their ability to do business with other financial institutions but that technically is not a restriction
Dave https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/sanctions/information
NORV From the general info page it shows Iraq (2) meaning they must have two outstanding issues still.
Dave arms embargo asset freeze on banking
NORV There may very well be arms embargo and there may be assets frozen of individuals within Iraq but there is no restrictions on their banks except for the possibilty of doing business with Iran. IMF Article 14 is their own choice and has nothing to do with UN chapter 7
NORV If there were investors that wanted to move money into Iraq there would be no problem I can assure you that. The problem is is that they need laws To support Investment otherwise nobody’s coming to the party.
NORV And as long as Iraq continues to struggle to move forward the dinar will remain weak. I’ve been saying for many years only with the success and growth of Iraq’s own economy can the dinar ever go up in value.
NORV I gotta go. See ya.
Dave By paragraph 19, the Council decided that the Committee shall identify individuals and entities referred to in paragraph 23, by which the Council decided that funds or other financial assets or economic resources of the previous Government of Iraq or its state bodies, corporations, or agencies, located outside Iraq as of the date of the resolution, or funds or other financial assets or economic resources that have been removed from Iraq, or acquired, by Saddam Hussein or other senior officials of the former Iraqi regime and their immediate family members, including entities owned or controlled, directly or indirectly, by them or by persons acting on their behalf or at their direction, shall freeze, without delay, those funds or other financial assets or economic resources.
butterfly IMF: Iraq Economic Growth “to Continue amid Fiscal Expansion” An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission met with the Iraqi authorities in Amman during February 20-29 to conduct the 2024 Article IV consultation.
Some key data from their report:
1. Economic Growth:
Non-oil GDP growth: 6% in 2023.
Overall growth projected to rebound in 2024.
2. Inflation:
Declined from 7.5% in January 2023 to 4% by year-end.
3. Fiscal Position:
Deficit: 1.3% of GDP in 2023, down from a surplus of 10.8% in 2022.
Projected deficit for 2024: 7.6% of GDP.
Public debt: Expected to nearly double from 44% in 2023 to 86% by 2029.
4. Policy Priorities:
Need for fiscal adjustment to stabilize debt and rebuild buffers.
Focus on reducing current expenditure, increasing non-oil revenues, and improving revenue administration.
5. Monetary Policy:
CBI raised policy interest rates and reserve requirements.
Efforts to reduce excess liquidity and improve monetary policy pass-through.
6. Structural Reforms:
Comprehensive employment strategy needed.
Financial sector reform to improve credit access.
Urgent pension reform required.
Combat corruption and improve governance.
Hurdles to private sector development need to be removed, including in the electricity sector and business registration procedures.
7. IMF Support: The IMF staff team stands ready to support reform efforts.
Full statement from IMF:
butterfly An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission, led by Mr. Jean-Guillaume Poulain, met with the Iraqi authorities in Amman during February 20-29 to conduct the 2024 Article IV consultation. The following statement was issued at the end of the mission:
Economic growth is projected to continue amid fiscal expansion. Meanwhile, medium-term vulnerabilities to oil price volatility have increased significantly. Reducing oil dependence and ensuring fiscal sustainability while protecting critical social and investment spending will require a significant fiscal adjustment, focused on controlling the public wage bill and increasing non-oil tax revenues.
In parallel, higher economic growth will be needed to absorb the rapidly expanding labor force, boost non-oil exports and broaden the tax base. The authorities should therefore seek to enable private sector development, including through labor market reforms, modernization of the financial sector and restructuring of state-owned banks, pension and electricity sector reforms, and continued efforts to improve governance and reduce corruption.
Economic Outlook and Risks
butterfly Growth in the non-oil sector has rebounded strongly in 2023 while inflation receded. Supported by increases in public expenditure and solid agricultural output, real non-oil GDP is estimated to have grown by 6 percent in 2023 after stalling in 2022.
Headline inflation declined from a high of 7.5 percent in January 2023 to 4 percent by year-end, reflecting lower international food and energy prices, and the impact of the February 2023 currency revaluation. The current account is expected to have recorded a surplus of 2.6 percent of GDP and international reserves increased to US$ 112 billion.
These positive developments were supported by the normalization of trade finance and the stabilization of FX market. After some initial disruptions following the introduction of new anti-money laundering and combating financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) controls on cross-border payments in November 2022, the improved compliance with the new system and the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI)’s initiatives to cut processing time led to a recovery in trade finance in the second half of 2023. This ensured private sector access to foreign exchange at the official rate for imports and travel purposes.
In the meantime, the fiscal position worsened. Although the expansionary budget was under-executed due to delayed Parliamentary approval, the fiscal balance still declined from a surplus of 10.8 percent of GDP in 2022 to a deficit of 1.3 percent in 2023, due to lower oil revenues and an increase in expenditures by 8 percentage points of GDP, of which salaries and pensions contributed 5 percentage points as the authorities started hiring in line with the budget law.
butterfly Overall growth is projected to rebound in 2024 and risks are tilted downwards amid heightened uncertainty. Non-oil growth momentum will continue in 2024. Larger declines in oil prices or extended OPEC+ cuts could weigh on fiscal and external accounts.
If regional tensions escalate, a disruption of shipping routes or damage to the oil infrastructure could result in oil production losses that could outweigh the potential positive impact of higher oil prices. In case of a deterioration in domestic security conditions, this could lead to a decline in business sentiment and suspension of investment projects. Over the medium term, non-oil growth is projected to stabilize around 2.5 percent given existing hurdles to private sector development.
Furthermore, vulnerability to oil price declines has increased as higher expenditures are projected to push the fiscal break-even oil price above $90 in 2024. Absent new policy measures, the fiscal deficit is expected to reach 7.6 percent in 2024 and widen further thereafter as oil prices are projected to gradually decline over the medium term. As a consequence, public debt would almost double from 44 percent in 2023 to 86 percent by 2029.
Butterfly Policy Priorities
An ambitious fiscal adjustment would be required to help stabilize debt in the medium term and rebuild fiscal buffers, while protecting critical capital spending. Most of the fiscal adjustment would have to come from reducing current expenditure, especially controlling the wage bill by limiting mandatory hiring and gradually introducing an attrition rule.
The authorities should also seek to increase non-oil revenues by broadening the personal income tax base and making it more progressive, reviewing the customs tariff structure, and considering new taxes on luxury items. In parallel, efforts to make revenue and customs administration more efficient should continue. Further savings could be obtained through better targeting social support and increasing cost recovery within the electricity sector. These adjustment measures should provide room for the expansion of the targeted social safety net.
The authorities should also strengthen public financial management and limit fiscal risks. The mission welcomes initial steps towards the establishment of a Treasury Single Account (TSA), which is crucial to improve cash management. Further progress is needed and close cooperation between the CBI and Ministry of Finance will be essential.
The next steps are to define TSA design options and complete the bank account census. In future years, overall ceilings on the issuance of guarantees should be specified in the budget law and be enforced. The mission advise against the use of extrabudgetary funds and highlights potential fiscal risks associated with their use.
As a second best, it would be important to ensure the Iraq Fund for Development has appropriate governance arrangements, including governing board independence while ensuring transparency of the Fund’s activities including by publishing its investment plans in the annual budget documentation and restricting its ability to borrow.
butterfly The mission encourages the authorities to build on the CBI welcomed efforts to reduce excess liquidity. The CBI appropriately raised the policy interest rate and reserve requirements, introduced a 14-day CBI bill facility last summer, and scaled back its subsidized lending to the real estate sector.
However, monetary policy pass-through has been muted, hampered by large excess liquidity and lack of market incentives in financial intermediaries, especially at state-owned banks. The CBI’s ongoing efforts should be supported by consolidating idle government deposits in a TSA, refraining from procyclical fiscal policy, reducing the reliance on monetary finance, and improving public debt management.
In parallel, efforts to develop an interbank market with the help of IMF technical assistance should continue. The mission also welcomes the authorities’ steps to speed up the digitalization of the economy, reduce the reliance on cash and enhance financial inclusion.
Wide-ranging structural reforms are needed to foster private sector development and economic diversification. Iraq needs higher and more sustainable non-oil growth to absorb the rapidly growing labor force, increase non-oil exports and government revenue, and reduce the economy’s vulnerability to oil price shocks.
Key reform priorities include:
Adopting a comprehensive employment strategy aimed at phasing-out mandatory hiring in the public sector, leveling the playing field between public and private jobs, addressing mismatches between educational curricula and the skills needed in the private sector, and strengthening labor market institutions. The strategy should also aim at reducing informality and addressing legal, social, and cultural impediments to women’s participation in the workforce.
butterfly Accelerating financial sector reform to improve access to credit. The authorities are committed to modernizing the banking sector and supporting banks’ ability to secure correspondent banking relationships and have taken steps towards consolidation of small private banks.
Efforts to restructure the two largest state-owned banks should intensify, including by expediting certification of past financial statements and implementation of core banking systems, and enhancing corporate governance in line with best practices.
Implementing a comprehensive pension reform. This is urgently needed to reduce the overall projected fiscal costs of the public pension scheme, better align the benefits and rules across the public and private schemes, ensure adequacy of pensions and intergenerational equity, and increase the ratio of workers participating in the private pension scheme.
Combating corruption and improving governance, particularly by strengthening the institutional and legal frameworks needed to ensure the independence of the Integrity Commission and the Board of Supreme Audit, enhancing the publication of assets and conflicts of interests declarations for top level officials, and adopting an updated anticorruption strategy.
Further, public procurement and business regulations should also be enhanced. The authorities should also continue to strengthen the AML/CFT framework and its effectiveness, including in the banking sector, guided by the priority actions identified in the MENAFATF Mutual Evaluation that will be concluded in May 2024.
Removing other hurdles to private sector development by reforming the electricity sector to improve efficiency, cost recovery, and reliable access; simplifying procedures for business registration; and upgrading critical infrastructure.
The IMF staff team stands ready to support the authorities in their reform efforts and would like to thank them for constructive and productive discussions during this mission. (Source: IMF)
Sheila @TWW You were blessed. Rumor has it there about 7M dinar/foreign currency holders here in USA. Other rumtel says 10M worldwide.
Sheila TWW lower numbers than rumtel… various holdings from one 25K dinar note up to what might be considered whale – like they have “pallet”
TWW sheila we’ll have to wait to see how that works out, hummm
Sheila TWW yes we will. Heard tonight on CC that we should record our Zim serial numbers. Why only Zim, is what I want to know? They didn’t give basis for that tidbit. – from Holly
Sheila @TWW two hours later here,,, gotta sleep now
Zig :Hi: Readers….This Chat Room is now a gated community https://my.cbox.ws/ZIGPLACE
:Security: where an invitation is now required in order to participate
