The US-Iran war created a difficult test for Bitcoin and gold, 2 assets often discussed as alternatives during periods of uncertainty. Shipping disruptions, pressure on energy supplies, and stalled negotiations gave the comparison more weight than a routine price contest.
Bitcoin Turned A $10,000 Investment Into $12,800 In The Shared Comparison
Fthegurus’ figures put the Bitcoin investment at $12,800, a 28% return, and a $2,800 profit on the original $10,000.
That places Bitcoin ahead of every other asset in the post. The Nasdaq returned 20%, and the S&P 500 returned 13%, so Bitcoin’s reported performance exceeded both stock benchmarks.
The Bitcoin price result deserves careful interpretation, however. A positive return over the period does not establish that the war caused the increase. Prices can respond to several forces at once, such as liquidity, interest rate expectations, demand, and changes in market positioning.
If you invested $10,000 when the US Iran war started you would have: S&P 500: $11,300 (+13%) Nasdaq: $12,000 (+20%) Bitcoin: $12,800 (+28%) Gold: $7,830 (−22%) Silver: $6,440 (−36%) A year ago, if you had told me a war would be bullish for stocks and bitcoin and bearish for Gold and Silver, I would have thought you were stupid.
— Fthegurus (@fthegurus) October 9, 2026
The comparison also cannot tell us how comfortable that journey was. Bitcoin could have fallen during parts of the period before recovering, but the post provides no chart or price history to establish that path.
The important distinction is between the final result and everything that happened before it. An investment worth $12,800 at the endpoint does not necessarily mean Bitcoin offered protection whenever military tensions increased.
Gold Turned the Same $10,000 Into $7,830
Gold produced the opposite result in Fthegurus’ comparison. The original $10,000 became $7,830, a loss of $2,170.
The post describes that decline as 22%. The stated dollar values produce a 21.7% loss, so the percentage appears rounded.
This is the most striking contrast in the Bitcoin and gold comparison. Bitcoin finished above its starting value, and gold finished below it. The difference between the final portfolios was $4,970.
Gold’s reputation as a defensive asset can make that outcome seem surprising. However, a reputation does not guarantee a positive return over every conflict or every investment window.
The Stock and Silver Results Broaden the Bitcoin and Gold Comparison
The remaining figures show that the reported divergence extended beyond Bitcoin and gold.
| Asset | Starting Investment | Reported Final Value | Reported Return | Profit Or Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | $10,000 | $12,800 | +28% | +$2,800 |
| Gold | $10,000 | $7,830 | About −22% | −$2,170 |
| S&P 500 | $10,000 | $11,300 | +13% | +$1,300 |
| Nasdaq | $10,000 | $12,000 | +20% | +$2,000 |
| Silver | $10,000 | $6,440 | About −36% | −$3,560 |
Silver recorded the largest loss in the comparison. Its final value of $6,440 represents a 35.6% decline, close to the rounded 36% cited in the post.
Fthegurus expressed surprise that stocks and Bitcoin had risen during the war period as gold and silver declined. That observation captures the contrast, but describing the war itself as bullish or bearish goes beyond what these figures prove.
Shipping Disruption and Negotiations Still Matter for the Next Price Move
The supplied conflict context describes pressure on shipping, energy supplies, and diplomatic negotiations. Damage to military facilities does not automatically bring those problems to an end.
Further shipping disruption could increase transport and insurance costs. Persistent energy pressure could also complicate the economic outlook. A negotiated settlement could ease some of those pressures, although markets would still have other developments to assess.
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The comparison therefore leaves several questions open:
- The post does not specify its exact starting prices or valuation date.
- The figures do not establish whether stock returns include dividends.
- The calculation does not explain fees, taxes, or investment vehicles.
Those details matter when someone tries to reproduce the results.
