A friend calls me this week…has a couple of questions for me to answer.
[How can Iraq, if they have 25 Trillion Dinar outstanding – ever RV at a $3 dollar rate and pay for it? Isn’t that like 75 Trillion Dollars?]
First, we have NO IDEA what the real outstanding number is – OUTSIDE OF IRAQ.
That is the key number…there is NO RELIABLE INFO on this… even the CBI’s internal people can only estimate… and they don’t think it is that much.
Could be as low as 3 Trillion – maybe less now…
So – the real lesson is not to base complex analysis on wide gaps in actual information.
The 25 Trillion number is likely a flawed assumption… AND if they get “international support and acceptance” – that 3-6 Trillion could even get held in various Treasuries as “Foreign currency reserves” – JUST LIKE IRAQ CURRENCY DOES FOR OTHERS.
The only reason they have to worry about what is outside of Iraq is they might have to redeem it in some way.
Both the CBI has been sensitive to this issue for some time… and the IMF – UN – WB has had an eye on it as well…the Dinar that is INSIDE Iraq is still going to be worth a Dinar.
Nothing changes on that front – they just get more for it. It’s not costing the CBI a DIME!!
A Dinar is still worth a Dinar – post RV.
Iraqis are not going to be POURING INTO BANKS to exchange their Dinar for some other foreign currency… why would they?
Second half of the answer…
Who – in Iraq ever said anything DIRECTLY about $3?
All of the foundational documents we have uncovered and are using as our basis research seem to indicate something around $1…SIGR report…Iraq MOP studies…recent interviews with CBI Officials…
I haven’t verified $3 ONE TIME – NOT ONCE…in fact, it seems clear they intend to get to $1 – but how exactly they intend to do that – we are not sure of… NOR CAN WE BE.
Relax and enjoy the show – YOU’VE GOT A TICKET TO RIDE!
