Matthew Hyland believes Bitcoin has a long way to climb before the next major bear market arrives.
On Thursday in a post on X, he said a 70% to 80% drop is likely in a few years. Given the heavy support between $100,000 and $125,000, though, he said a run to $350,000 or higher would be needed to unlock it.
“Since BTC will likely get a real Bear market in a few years where it drops 70%-80%, given the amount of support between 100k-125k going to $350k+ will be required to unlock a 70%+ Bear market for Bitcoin,” he wrote in the post.
Bitcoin trades near about $82,000 today at the time of writing.
Why Hyland sees an eight-year cycle
Hyland argues that this cycle will last eight years instead of the usual four. In a follow-up post, he said bearish macro conditions have lasted twice as long as in earlier cycles, which has doubled Bitcoin’s timeline. He pointed to 2028 as the likely top.
The analyst said he used weekly cycles to call the bottom on July 1 “to the day,” while others expected an October low.
He also expects Bitcoin to exceed $250,000 after its climb from about $69,000 to $125,000.
Bitcoin dominance is elevated while altcoin dominance sits near a floor, he noted, a setup he says matches 2016 and 2020.
“If you understand cycles and understand what took place with the Macro it has made perfect sense for months while most nearly everyone else has been beyond confused and still are,” he wrote in his post.
Where Bitcoin stands
Bitcoin fell briefly below $80,000 on Thursday after failing to break above $84,000 earlier in the week. It sits at about $82,000, which is still 35% below its record above $126,000.
September inflation data that came in slightly above expectations weighed on prices, as did a slide in Asian stocks.
“Most think BTC is not a good asset anymore, ETH is cooked, and Alts are dead forever Just watch what happens. 2028 IMO is likely where BTC will top followed by a multi-year bear market,” the analyst added in the post.
