Bitcoin Prediction Markets Show Dim Odds For $100K Recovery Crypto News

on January 23, 2026
Bitcoin (BTC) traders on prediction platforms assign less than 10% chance the cryptocurrency will reclaim $100,000 before February.

The pessimism reflects weak market momentum three months after Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak above $126,000.

Polymarket data shows approximately 6% probability for a January breakout above six figures. Kalshi traders price odds less than 9% for the same timeframe.

Bitcoin briefly touched $97,900 on January 14 but has since retreated to roughly $89,000. The cryptocurrency last traded above $100,000 in mid-November 2025.

What Traders Expect

Longer-term odds remain higher. Kalshi participants estimate 54% probability Bitcoin crosses $100,000 before June. Polymarket shows 88% odds for the milestone sometime in 2026.

Downside bets have gained traction. Polymarket traders assign 65% probability Bitcoin drops to $80,000 before reaching $100,000. Kalshi participants price 54% odds for a bottom at $70,000 this year.
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Strategy Position at Risk

Strategy holds 709,715 Bitcoin acquired for approximately $54 billion. The company’s average cost basis sits between $66,000 and $76,000 per coin, depending on calculation methodology.

Polymarket shows 75% odds Bitcoin trades below Strategy’s cost basis during 2026. The company purchased 22,305 coins last week for roughly $2.13 billion.

Why It Matters

The subdued odds reflect Bitcoin’s failure to sustain momentum after its 2025 correction. The cryptocurrency dropped approximately 29% from its October peak, eliminating gains that followed the November 2024 halving event.

Traders cite macroeconomic uncertainty and weak buying pressure as headwinds. Bitcoin needs to reclaim $94,000-$96,000 resistance levels before attempting another run at $100,000 territory.

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