Global oil exports could decline by 3.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026 following US airstrikes on Iran over the past two days, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned on Friday, citing mounting disruption to energy markets.
IEA reported that global oil supply rose by 4.1 million bpd in June but remained below pre-war levels. It also projected a supply deficit of 860,000 bpd this year and estimated that global oil demand would fall by about 1 million bpd.
The agency forecast that global oil supply could expand by 7.5 million bpd in 2027 if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of the world’s oil supplies, returns to normal.
The United States carried out airstrikes on several strategic facilities in Iran overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Tehran later launched retaliatory attacks on US military facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait.
