I am getting a little more comfortable with my initial feeling that our next movement is going to be tied to the price of oil.
Here’s the good news: I try to avoid it, but a lot of people ask me every week to make a prediction.
Will it happen… This week? This year? EVER?!
Today is probably as close to a prediction as you’ll ever get from me. It’s not a date, or a rate, but here it is.
It’s my opinion that right now, we have been close to the “bottom” of the price of oil for a reasonable amount of time.
We haven’t seen any movement on the HCL recently, and I think it’s because they are watching oil just like the rest of the world.
Now, I could be wrong… and this is very early to get too excited.
If I’m right, and we are at the bottom of the decline…that…might be showing us EXACTLY what we want to see!
I can’t claim to know how long we’ll stay at the bottom… but my guess is at least a week, maybe a little longer.
That’s going to show true solid stability.
We might have less than 6 months, and probably less than 2 months, if this article is meaningful:
“...Mohammed Saleh possibility of improvement in the degree of Iraq ‘s credit rating to a higher degree …stressing that high oil prices and the gradual recovery that would contribute to the progress of the degree of Iraq ‘s credit rating…He explained that the agency conducted a review of the degree classification every six months ”
I am pretty confident we’re not going to see HCL progress until oil proves it has hit bottom and is ready to climb again
