Technical analyst
Eric Crown says the
Bitcoin(BTC) bear market ended at August’s
$78,500 close, with $70,000 the level that would break his call.
Key Points:
- Crown’s final macro reversal signal fired when Bitcoin closed August above his $65,708 threshold.
- He expects a shallow early-September dip toward the low $70,000s and plans to buy it.
- A drop below $70,000 would invalidate the entire thesis, and not every analyst agrees the low is in.
Crown’s August Bitcoin Close Signal
Crown
said a single item still remained on his macro reversal checklist when he sat for an interview recorded on Aug. 26. He wanted a monthly close above $65,708. That one print would lift the monthly stochastic oscillator out of bearish territory for the first time since January 2023.
Bitcoin settled the month on Binance at $78,581, roughly $12,900 above the threshold, after a broader macro indicator combining volatility, fear and greed readings, seasonality and momentum extremes had already fired in the low $60,000s. BTC
traded near $77,300 on Wednesday as a selloff across global bond markets pressured risk assets everywhere.
September Seasonality And The Weekly 5 EMA
Crown rejects September’s billing as Bitcoin’s worst month, placing it third worst on median returns behind August and December. August itself carries a median loss of 7.5%, and yet the month just gone rose by close to 25%. The last three Septembers all
closed green, a run that sits awkwardly beside the seasonal warnings now circulating.
History splits the month in two, with the first 16 days of September carrying a median loss of 8.5% and the back half of the month turning positive at 6.5%. Crown ties that turn to the Federal Reserve meeting, fresh economic data and the quarterly options expiry that lands in the same stretch of the calendar.
Applied to August’s close, the early leg points to roughly $71,900, near the weekly five-period exponential moving average at $73,294, a level Crown says he wants to buy into long-term positions rather than trade around.
Benjamin Cowen And The $70,000 Invalidation
Not every analyst agrees the low is in, and Benjamin Cowen still expects the bottom nearer November, reading crypto as 62% below fair value and the cheapest since 2010. Crown puts his own worst case at the weekly 21-period average of $70,923, and a loss of $70,000 would scrap the thesis outright.
The price structure is also unfinished, because the sequence Crown wants requires a higher low, a retest of the previous high, then a higher high that has not yet arrived.
Bitcoin spent August climbing from the low $60,000s to above $80,000, though the month’s peak at $81,260 stalled just under an earlier weekly lower high near $83,000.
Buyers have since
defended the $77,000 area, a shelf that sits far below the record near $126,000 set in October 2025.
