Bitcoin is facing a convergence of selling pressure that crypto analyst Ali Martinez says warrants a serious warning.

In a detailed eight-part thread on X, Martinez laid out a coordinated picture of supply hitting the market from multiple major sources at the same time, and identified the specific price level that determines what happens next.

Three major sellers, all active at once

The data Martinez presented covers the past ten days. Bitcoin miners, often viewed as long-term holders who sell only when necessary, have offloaded 1,648 BTC worth approximately $106 million following Bitcoin’s recent move toward $64,600.

ETFs compounded that pressure last week with net outflows of 6,195 BTC, roughly $398 million leaving the spot Bitcoin ETF market in a single week.

Strategy added to the picture too. Earlier, the Michael Saylor-led company has sold 3,338 BTC over the past few weeks, worth more than $214 million, to fund dividend payments on its preferred securities.

Together, Martinez said, these three sources represent a simultaneous supply event that the market is currently absorbing under difficult conditions.

$1.59 billion in potential sell-side liquidity

Where that supply is going matters as much as who is selling. Exchange balances have increased by 24,700 BTC over the past ten days, equivalent to approximately $1.59 billion in Bitcoin now sitting on exchanges in a position where it can be sold.

Coins moving to exchanges don’t always sell immediately, but the buildup represents meaningful overhead pressure on price.

US demand is not stepping in to absorb it. The Coinbase Premium Index has remained negative since May 8 and currently sits near -0.0743, signaling that Bitcoin is trading cheaper on Coinbase than on Binance, a persistent indicator of weak or outright negative US institutional buying pressure.

The level that decides the next move

Martinez identified a critical support zone between $63,111 and $61,849 as the line the market needs to defend. More than 2 million BTC were previously transacted in that range, giving it structural significance as a potential floor.

If that zone holds amid the current selling pressure, he said Bitcoin may resume its advance.

If it breaks, the next major downside target sits near $54,276, a level that would represent a meaningful extension of the current drawdown and bring the Bitcoin Investor Price floor Martinez has previously identified near $48,300 back into active conversation.

Source

Three major sellers, all active at once

$1.59 billion in potential sell-side liquidity

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The level that decides the next move

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