Spot gold closed last week at $4,194.80 per ounce on Friday, June 12, down roughly 20% from its January lifetime high of $5,595. The market then jumped over 2.3% on Monday morning, June 15, to $4,316.03 per ounce, after news of a preliminary US-Iran agreement.
US and Iranian officials announced a preliminary framework agreement to end the war, lift the US embargo, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This triggered a risk-on rally across global asset classes, though analysts are now warning that a drop could come before the next real move higher.
Analyst Views: Gold Price Final Dip Toward $3,900 Before a Recovery
The Economic Office posted a detailed analysis of the gold price on Monday. Their main scenario points to the possibility of one final dip toward the $3,900 area before any sustained recovery.
They note that $4,589 is the key resistance level to watch, and the $4,099 area has become a reaction zone after the breakout. The analyst expects a pullback toward $3,900 support first, followed by a strong recovery back toward the $4,589 resistance level.
#XAUUSD#GOLD | H4 Analysis UpdateThe main scenario for gold still points to the possibility of one final dip toward the 3,900 area.
4,589 remains the key resistance level to watch.
The 4,099 area has become a reaction zone after the breakout.We expect a pullback toward the… https://t.co/jYNpXz21R0pic.twitter.com/M7BpCcsIqd
— Economic Office (@Economic_Office) June 15, 2026
Another analyst, Allie, warned traders not to blindly chase the market higher. Allie posted that Iran says the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and the analyst believes the gold price will continue to correct.
The current strategy shared by Allie is to sell at higher levels, specifically trying to sell in the $4,340 to $4,350 range. These two independent analyses both point to the same conclusion: a pullback is likely before any sustainable rally.
#XAUUSD#GOLD
Iran says the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.Don’t blindly chase the market higher; I believe gold will continue to correct.
The current strategy is to sell at higher levels. You can try selling in the 4340-4350 range.
This is my latest market analysis. If you… pic.twitter.com/kPJHG55mA0
— Allie—analyst (@XAUUSD__AILIE) June 15, 2026
News Pushing the Gold Price Today
The gold price jumped by $101.80 per ounce in a single session after a tentative US-Iran deal opened the Strait of Hormuz. This move reduced the geopolitical risk premium that had been holding the gold price back. Crude oil fell 3.90% to $84.29 per barrel, and lower oil prices cooled fears of structural inflation, pushing expectations toward looser global monetary policies.
ETF liquidations continue to put pressure on the gold price. Net holdings for the world’s largest fund, SPDR Gold Trust, contracted by 0.3% to 923.89 tonnes. ANZ lowered its year-end gold price target by $400 to $5,200 per ounce, while Goldman Sachs kept a target of $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2026. The $4,000 level is the absolute structural base, and a break below that round number risks a rapid technical drop toward $3,500.
Where Could the Gold Price Go Next Based on Our Analysis
The gold price is at a decision point after the move above $4,300. The pump was real, but the momentum has already started to cool.
The gold price needs to hold above $4,099 to keep the bullish structure intact. A break below that level would open the door to a test of $3,900, just as the Economic Office predicted.
The most likely path over the next few weeks is a dip toward $3,900, followed by a slow grind back toward $4,589. That matches both the technical setup and the analyst consensus we reviewed today.
