EHankins: I wonder… I just wonder. What’s next. No disrespect. It’s just my curiosity in me asking. What it next?
DELTA: WHAT’S NEXT? …..DETERMINE THE PRICE GLOBALLY……(Big Smile)
Don961: What if the central bank stopped selling the dollar?
Friday 12 July 2019
Abdul Zahra Al Hindawi
The sale of the dollar, or the so-called “sale of the dollar”, carried out by the Central Bank of Iraq for several years, in the framework of its monetary policy, is one of the most important files that raise a lot of talk about it, there are those who applaud the idea and prepare of the very important procedures of The one to preserve the value of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar, which represents a “barometer” sensitive to measure the strength of national currencies.
On the other hand, there is someone who speaks with absolute negativity about the window of sale of the currency, returned to it a door of corruption, corruption and currency smuggling. Sold monthly through that window, The latest in May, as the volume of the sold amount of four billion dollars, according to indicators of the Central Bureau of Statistics, as announced by the Central Bank of Iraq on an ongoing basis.
Regardless of the opinion of both parties, pro and opposition, of the mechanism of selling the dollar, if we take the situation impartially, and discussed the issue with its economic dimension, it can be said that the experience of selling the currency, contributed significantly to the preservation of the value of the dinar, which was suffering a lot of instability, We find its value falling, against the dollar, so much so that people in the past were turning the dinar into dollars, so that they would be reassured.
But after the start of the sale of currency, the dinar stabilized, and people no longer think to convert it into dollars, and the dealing in dinars is more popular and wide, it has not exceeded its current stable value at 1200 several years ago, which in itself represents support for the strength of the national economy, strength and stability of the currency Is an important positive indicator of the strength of the economy, and countries are strongly seeking this direction in order to maintain their national currencies stable, on the one hand, and on the other hand, the sale of currency has played a prominent role in curbing inflation in Iraq.
Prior to that, the indicators of the Central Bureau of Statistics talk about a crazy rise in the annual inflation index, exceeding the (20 percent) sometimes, and such an increase, was threatening the collapse of the currency and then deterioration of the development climate by about a year, but noted, since the start of selling the dollar, saw Inflation indices are stable at rates of 2% or less. In some months we find a decrease in the index, noting that it is not easy to talk about a drop in inflation worldwide, there is always a rise, as a result Demand for many departments and services has increased, with steady increases in population numbers And the growing volume of investments.
In addition to the above, the sale of the currency has played a major role in providing the “dollar” coverage of the volume of goods imports over the past years, and if the window is not open, there have been many problems in this regard. But the question that is raised here, from which we move to the other bank, where there are critics of the process, was this “dollar” coverage sound 100 percent ?, certainly the answer would be no, because we are talking about the size of a very large import, amounting to more than 50 billion dollars This is an indication from the Central Bank and others. There are some imports that were not real. They are only papers and receipts, which are offered for the dollar, which is probably Go in other tracks.
On the other hand, this is also an aspect of the criticism of the process, is that the sale of the currency caused the emergence of banks, adopted in the process of the window, it was like shops, which buy something from the wholesale market, and then sold retail or retail, This is a problem in itself, because the presence of such emergency shops on the monetary and financial scene in the country has caused a distortion of the image of banks and banks, and distrust between citizens and banks. As the central bank started in cooperation with the Masar Association The Iraqi Special Monitoring this file, take appropriate measures to reduce the proliferation of shops of this kind.
And when we talk about reforming the situation, and taking into account all the sharp criticisms of the sale of currency by the Central Bank, to the extent that there are those who describe it as a window of corruption and waste of public money, without taking into account other aspects, including, , To ensure the need of Iraqi citizens who travel to other countries for the purposes of tourism and treatment, and stop trading on the black market, it requires the treatment and procedures that will pruning and refining the window selling the currency and the problems that can not be overlooked.
It may be necessary to resort to other mechanisms that are quite different from what is currently being used. Also, there must be a realistic match between what is sold to cover imports and between imported goods and products through coordination with border ports and related parties.
In the end, it is certain that practical solutions will exist to address all the disadvantages of the process, in order to preserve public money, before we talk or demand the closure of the window selling the currency in Iraq. link
Don961: Oil prices rise and Brent above $ 67
Friday 12 July 2019
Oil prices ranged from a six-week high on Friday, as US oil producers in the Gulf of Mexico cut production by more than half in the face of a tropical storm.
Brent crude futures rose 53 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $ 67.05 a barrel. Global benchmark crude fell 0.7 percent on Thursday after hitting a 30-year high of $ 67.65 a barrel.
Western Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 42 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $ 60.62 a barrel. US benchmark crude <CLc1> hit its highest level since May 23 at $ 60.94.
By Thursday, oil companies in the Gulf of Mexico cut output by more than 1 million barrels per day, or 53 percent of the region’s output, due to tropical storm Bari, which could reach the coast of Louisiana on Saturday.
US crude inventories fell for four weeks in a row, and the US Energy Information Administration said crude inventories fell 9.5 million barrels in the week ending July 5, more than three times the 3.1 million barrels forecast by analysts.
“Brent crude and West Texas crude are expected to remain at current levels due to the sharp drop in US crude stocks and geopolitical risks,” said Kim Kwang Rai, analyst at Samsung Futures in Seoul. link