Thousands of supporters of the Sadrist movement, on Friday in Tahrir Square in central Baghdad, in support of the initiative of the leader of the reformist trend, while the roads leading to the square witnessed intensive security measures to protect the demonstrators.
Tlar: Now that’s a show of strength. I would be willing to bet that the SOL ministers and any minister who has been stealing, that has yet to resign hoping to survive this, who are in their offices today staring at the mass of people at the wall of the green zone, will resign immediately and leave quickly through the back door.
What is being said by Sadr is “you leave and don’t interfere with the changeover of government, or we will come through the wall and physically storm the green zone tomorrow and remove you physically.”
Any minister who stays past today or for that matter any block who is intending to side track these reforms, beware. The corruption’s day of reckoning is just around the corner. tlar
Tlar: In theory Maliki is not in parliament, nor is he a Minister or any part of the government. He has his minions of course buried deep in all kinds of positions including ministers and he has plants everywhere that answer to him either because they are on his payroll or are being blackmailed.
Maliki is the Mafia he so loved to call everyone else when he was the one who kept shutting down the RV saying “mafia’s are preparing to rig the currency”. Here is where I think his head must be.
Maliki knows that recently Iran has turned their back on him. That’s a block. He knows that al-Sistani just ordered the popular crowd to take it’s orders from the defense ministry which he no longer controls.
The defense ministry is under the control of Abadi so Maliki’s dreams of controlling the crowd are totally gone now. That’s a major block. He also must know that his ministers and minions will resign now out of fear and basically abandon him. That’s a block.
And he knows that the US is in the green zone protecting the life of Abadi. That’s a block.
We have to assume that when the change was originally suggested with al-Sistani’s call for the government to resign, that his corrupt machine went into overdrive trying to slow it down, fight it, or stop it all together. He must know that that option is closing fast. That’s a block.
His options other than trying to assassinate Abadi which at this point with the US protecting him, are diminishing by the hour. He is losing control fast now and those that he trusted, those that are also corrupt are in a life saving mode.
This is why I said they will quickly turn on him trying to save their own skin. We are already starting to see some of this with what was his defense minister wanting to produce copies of his orders from the Maliki administration to cover his own butt.
He will claim he was only following orders from the PM therefore cannot be held accountable. In other words, Maliki’s days are numbered and it is my belief that within weeks of the new government being seated , he will be arrested and brought up on charges.
The new government will be seated very quickly with little opposition from the corrupt because IMO they will be very busy trying to “fix” what they did making deals, or they will be on the run internationally.
Those that haven’t run yet, well what can I say. They are stupid and have overstayed their welcome or really did not believe anybody could stop them what with Maliki protecting them. The rallies being held today is the death knoll for the existing government. All IMO of course. tlar
Before there wasn’t a clear strategy or plan. There were just protesting a government that was self serving, entrenched and did not care what the people thought. This time it is different.
The plan is what has brought them together and out in droves. I think they understand that if they support this movemebnt, that change is coming. Sadr is a driven cleric and has a following.
But this showing will grow now because if other people understand and see that it is possible to force the corrupt from office and that there is a defined reason to protest, they will quickly join in . This kind of ground swell has been known to feed on itself because by and large the cause is worth fighting for.
I believe this protest will last until the job is done meaning those corrupt ministers and officials will resign.
I also believe this was a very necessary part of the plan to accelerate the process as many of the corrupt would have stayed in their offices to the bitter end much like Maliki and Allawi and Nujafi staying in their palaces and offices even after being kicked out of government.
Sadr’s support for the plan and his part in it, and for Abadi is obvious. The direction they are going is to crush any resistance to the plan early on clearing the way for the new government.
Once a minister resigns, there is no do over for him. As each minister resigns, he is out. I think by Monday all ministers except the 3 that Abadi wants to keep will have resigned. Whoa be to any that hasn’t. tlar
Mike: I’m really hoping that Sadr’s involvement makes a difference with this protest, they’ve been protesting for a year now and nothings changed. Hopefully the murdering cleric can do something for Abadi and Iraq
Good stuff, I guess we’ll see on Monday. In the past, the immunity that protected the MP’s was a powerful tool they coveted, if they just split, their immunity goes away.
If they stay and fight, the immunity is still in effect. Sadr’s group is large and powerful, but so is Ameri, Badr and the rest of the PMU. In the end, unless force is used, this will go through the political process, which is going to be something to watch
Tlar: Mike, I see it ending differently. I see Badr and Ameri not wanting to countermand al-Sistani. This is morphing into are you an Iraqi patriot interested in helping your country or are you not. Badr and Ameri have honored the call to not take part in the coming attack on Mosul.
So IMO today’s demonstration will pay big dividends quickly. Sadr’s threats of taking his crowd inside the green zone should scare the crap out of those on the wrong side of this. Although you could be right, I still feel that it will be over by Monday meaning the corrupt Ministers will resign.
I prefer to think that way because human nature being what it is most will now get out of the way. I also do not believe Sadr’s threat is a hollow one.
I think those that don’t resign and stubbornly attempt to hang on will be dealt with by this crowd of demonstrators. They too have to believe that or pay a major price. We should start to see articles maybe as early as tonight or tomorrow morning of all those Ministers and deputy ministers having resigned today or early tomorrow.
I don’t think this will be argued out over the next few weeks. It would kill the momentum. al-Sistani will again scream for resignations only louder this time if it comes to pass there are a few holdouts. All IMO. Achmedtlarious
Mike: I hope you’re right, Tlar, I would love to see a change in the government. For the record, I think Sadr was just blowing smoke, turning the mob loose in the Green Zone would be disasterous. I’ve watched these guys pound their chest and make threats but in the end, not much comes of it.
Over the years Sadr has made a bunch of grand standing statements with not much to show for it. There was talk several times regarding Maliki and a vote of no confidence and in the end, he folded.
I mean, Abadi’s been telling us for a year that ISIL’s days in Mosul were over, and yet here we are, ISIL’s still in Mosul. The Arab culture respects and recognizes these blustery statements, it’s part of everyday life.
If Abadi is going to do this, he needs to follow the constitution and not go off the rails and act like just another dictator. Any government he installs without due process won’t be legitimate in the eyes of the world. And to do that, he needs the support of Tariq Harb and Mahmood.
If they don’t cooperate, then that’s his first move towards reforming Parliament and the CoM’s replacement. Abadi needs the judicial branch to officially charge those they have files on and then try them in the courts.
This will take them out of the political scene and neutralize them while they go through the courts, once charged, I don’t see how they won’t get convicted, but who knows. Maliki and the corrupt have used the constitution for years to prevent change, they know how to use the system and that’s why they’re still in power. As long as they can still manipulate the courts, I don’t see much changing.
In the end, it’s just my opinion, I’m not telling you you’re wrong, Tlar. It would be awesome if they could just wipe the slate clean and start over with an inclusive, cooperative government focused on what’s best for the citizens and their contribution to the world.
But this is Iraq, and after watching them for years, it’s pretty clear nothing happens quick over there, even when it’s needed. There’s always a first time though.
JD Blue: Tlar… we did not even have to wait for tonight.. there was an article last night… where HAKIM presented the resignations of every MP within the Citizen’s Bloc. That was big news.. right in advance of the demonstration. We have seen another several dozen resignations before that. That said, you are correct, we should see even more… soon.
I think JB was asking if Sadr suddenly pulled this out of his hat. NO, he didn’t. We have been following these developments for the last 2 weeks. Abadi got back from visiting Britain, with a new plan. Realizing the REFORMS were going no where, with Maliki’s Mafia thumbing their noses at him… the PTB have stepped in… and Abadi is now aligned with the foreign powers… the US.. Britain… the IMF…
He began talking about the new GOI of technocrats…. calling for wholescale changes.. in a very short time. Then we heard SADR was on board. Hakim resurfaced. Sistani is backing it. And lo and behold… IRAN told Maliki “No matter what happens YOU ARE OUT!”
The Iranians are backing Abadi, and this new tack of REshuffling all the old MP’s out. With good reason. Iran is being rehabilitated in the global community, and they are no longer invested in keeping Iraq down. It is now in Iran’s interest to raise Iraq up alongside of themselves.
They just signed a significant MOU.. Iraq and Iran. THings are moving rapidly. The Iranian Riyal and the IQD are economically linked. IMHO.
SADR came out of seclusion and is lending his own personal efforts.. something he has not done before. For years we saw statements of ‘Sadrists”.. NOT by Moqtada SAdr.. but by his minions who were running the Sadrist dealings. Moqtada himself has been under wraps for some time.
This is BIG… Sadr coming out in person like this. Tlar has written several posts over the last week, and if i was to put them all together.. it would explain this much better than I could. All you have to do is go back and look at the 30 day thread. look at the SAdr thread.
Take the time to read the articles.. we kept them all together in about 4 or 5 crucial threads that really get to the heart of what is going on. It’s all there. A guy could get up to speed right quick.
JD Blue: Bottom line is this is SO FAR AWAY from the “Ho Hum, same old, same old” line of jaded , worthless posts that do nothing to add to our understanding of what is actually happening. Every site has their cross to bear… lol.
They passed a conscription law… not to force sunnis to go serve in the Shiite army in baghdad… but as a TOOL to get a handle on and FORCE the volunteer Popular Crowd to either join the army or disband. Iran backed them .. and Maliki is out in the cold.
There are a dozen equally as dramatic changes in play… that we know of… and it is all in the recent threads… with some damn good analysis and newshound work by some hard working people pitching in together as a team… despite the negative “Same old , same old” crowd. Tlar in particular has been on fire… and his words give depth and understanding of what we are seeing… not just a rehash of blather followed by “It’s just my opinion”.
There is a reason several of us came back right now. Independent of each other… we realized… THINGS ARE RAPIDLY CHANGING.
Tlar: The article above appears to be a counter article by Maliki to put fear into the the people that Abadi is week and Sadr will actually be running things behind the scenes. It is a divisive article with Maliki saying Sadr is belittling Abadi as weak.
We know Sadr is acting on behalf of Abadi because we know Iran has its tentacles deep in Iraq through both the leadership of the SOL and the popular crowd.. It is quite obvious to me that Abadi needed help because of the overwhelming opposition he was facing. He has it through Sadr and al-Sistani.
Sadr is acting in a supportive position and vocally is going along with the plan to staff technocrats. What Maliki is trying to suggest through this article is that Sadr is a dangerous guy and wants to control Abadi.
Tlar: We know for fact that Sadr will definitely have influence when the change in government takes place because of the roll he has played, but when Sadr speaks of Abadi, it is with admiration and respect, not the way this article from the Maliki corner presents the relationship. First and foremost Sadr is a patriot.
I believe he is genuine in his fight to support the average citizen and his causes. I also believe that he is not a secular person but rather he thinks Sunni’s and Shia can live together without killing each other.
Maliki on the other hand has proven over the years that he wants to subjugate Sunni’s and Kurds secularizing the sects. Maliki is deathly afraid of Sadr because he knows Sadr seeks his demise.
He is scared to death to see Sadr with Abadi and having influence. Sadr brings the Shiite cause and the Shiite street under the control of Abadi backing Abadi all the way. Sadr has tremendous influence with the average Shiite and is showing that he can influence the outcome of the change.
The expected response from Maliki is fear. Maliki never had the street. Sadr brings that element to the fray and Maliki does not know how to deal with it other than to attempt to break the bond between Abadi and Sadr. It won’t work because Sadr is determined to see the plan to change the government through.
Maliki is starting to sweat and IMO the above article, Maliki is showing stress because there is not much he can do. The net is closing.
Tlar: Mike, I respect your opinion and as yet, Humpty is still sitting on the wall. This could fall either way. There is no right or wrong in either opinion. At least that’s how I feel. I think we both agree that something of great historical importance is happening in front of us while we watch. This is a defining moment for Iraq.
Our opinions, I think, are the same as far as the potential outcome. I just feel there is a deadline they are chasing and as such, IMO I think they will get this done quicker than you think. I don’t think the Abadi government will bypass nor can they be seen doing so, any steps legally required to make this move.
This means they will have to see that the T’s will be crossed and I’s dotted. There is no loss or gain in being correct or incorrect in either of our opinions. After all you and I both are obviously avid readers and students, absorbing the same information as best we can..
I respect that of you and I respect your thoughtful opinions. I hope you feel the same about me and my opinions. Either way I feel quite sure we both hope for this to be over in as few days as possible few delays and quick resolutions to follow, with the ultimate goal being a new government free of corruption. tlar
Mike: Thanks for the article, Philly, it’s chilling.
“Abadi, as a person, is kindhearted,” said Saad Thamer, 37, a supporter of Mr. Sadr’s who attended the rally. “But he is very weak.”
“He’s supporting Abadi, but in his own way,” Mr. Maliki said. “He wants to control Abadi.”
I guess we’ll wait and see what happens, Blue’s right, I don’t see anything changing rapidly in Iraq.
Tlar: JB, my opinion hasn’t changed. I believe unless something comes up totally unforseen, I believe we will see the dinar go international on or before the end of this quarter (March 31st).
No Intel, just my thoughts. I am basing this thought on the instructions given by the CBI to make their books retroactive back to January which I believe means there is probably a change in the value of their assets based on a new value of the currency.
Also on the plan to open the economy in early March along with the new port. I still can’t see them doing any of this without an international currency.
The IMF is gearing them to go to Article VIII in March. Also all the recent talk upgrading upgrade the CBI govenor to someone who has an education and experience right at this moment. Not to mention the IMF’s statement that Iraq will seek to join the world economy in the first part of 2016.
The speed at which they are attempting to remove corruption (the old guard) from the government as if someone or some group is trying to make this change do to some schedule. As far as the value of the dinar, I have always believed that we have only partial facts. That is intentional I can assure you.
The question I would love to see answered is “how much money is actually sitting at the BIS that rightfully should be part of the reserves according to Turki at the time these monies were released back to Iraq from banks in the US as part of the removal of chapter VII.
The news reported that 80 billion USD was being released. Where did all those billions go? I have my suspicions. At the time they said they were going to release them it was around November 2012 and Turki had only been in office for a month or so.
Maliki immediately declared that the money belonged to the government. Turki defiantly said no, they were part of the CBI reserves and that Maliki would never get his hands on it. Shortly thereafter sometime in December 2012 I believe we saw an article from BIS statin g Iraq had opened an account and was planning on making deposits starting i January.
Then in January the deposits started being made to BIS. The reserves at the time in Iraq were very stable growing a little each month through commissions made in the auction. My questions are two fold.
Where did the money come from that was being deposited into BIS and what happened to the 80 billion that never showed up on the CBI’s balance sheet increasing the reserves. I think it’s a simple answer really.
Turki diverted those reserves to BIS, 80 billion worth. They are rightfully part of the reserves. Next Turki shipped the reserves that were being reported to banks all over the world to make sure Maliki could not get his hands on them.
That became a pissing match between Maliki and Turki whereby Maliki accused Turki of stealing 10 tons of gold in an attempt to get him out and a lacky in. (lacky in??)
I think the CBI’s reserves are much higher than they report to this day. This would affect the value of the dinar times 2 and some change. So I believe the rate they will do has the potential of being higher than just delegating 3 zeros.
We have all though that when you remove the leading zeros it meant 86 cents, but truth it without further details it could mean 86 cents or any number above that. It only latterly means THOSE ZEROS WILL BE GONE ONCE DELETED.
It doesn’t necessarily tell us anything else to help us determine what that rate may be. I hope this helps but I type with one finger and that finger is going numb tonight. So I leave you with this thought. The delete the zero program was envisioned as far back as 2006. That’s now 10 years ago.
At the time the reserves were around 30 billion a lot of which they raised by selling their currency to speculators for hard currency such as the dollar. They were producing about 1 million barrels a day most of which they were using internally. Very little was being exported for cash revenue.
In 2008 the CBI commissioned the strategic study with plans to delete the zeros in 2010. The study concluded at that time they could support 1.13 dinars to 1 US dollar. A lot has changed.
So what’s the number today? Your guess is probably better than mine because I have a cluttered and prejudice thought process when it comes to the rate. I think it will in the higher rather than lower range.
Good night. tlar PS please excuse the grammatical errors, I won’t bother to read this until tomorrow when it is too late to fix.
JD Blue: Yes. The Zeros Project has been going on for some time. WE dinarians did not invent it… it is FACT. Deal is… the rate is gonna be about the PIPS.
They can move the rate up or down.. and have several times.. by adjusting the PIPS.
That is one reason we have thought they may get the IQD up to 1,000 to 1…. in advance of deleting the leading zeros… then.. 1 IQD= 1 USD.
Me? I dont care what they move the PIPS to… up down or sideways.
I’m just here for the Zeros, baby!
Tlar: Oh one more thing that seems to concern everyone. That is how much dinar is n Iraq that is supposed to be circulating. This is what they have to cover when they do an RV. We have consistently read 35-37 trillion dinar is circulating.
The fact is Saleh told us at the beginning of 2012 that there were 4 trillion dinar circulating in Iraq at that time. I think he made a mistake in telling us because right after that economists and people in government raced to fix this mistake by putting out many articles saying there was 30 trillion circulating.
Either Saleh screwed up and made a huge mistake or they did not want us to know because it would not take a rocket scientist to start to see that the 100 billion in reserves was covering only 4 trillion dinar.
That would define the dinar as grossly undervalued and the speculators would have a field day. At the time he made this statement the CBI was still publishing “total number of dinar out of CBI” as a category.
Strangely that number matched the number politicians and the media were reporting as circulating dinars when we know our dinars are not circulating in Iraq. This brought on heated debates with many falling prey to the media’s bull crap. The media was being fed a bunch of manure and swallowing it in huge lumps.
I knew the numbers being reported we all the dinars and most of all dinars are sitting in other countries central banks and in hands of speculators such as you and I. Later at the end of 2014 they reprinted the currency to gain better security and they began a program with the intention of replacing all the currency in Iraq with the new bills to stop the counterfeiters. Guess what?
The only printed 5 trillion dinars in all the categories. You and I know that they would print more than they need as to not run out. 5 trillion is all they printed. What does that say about dinars circulating at the time at the end of 2014.
SALEH SLIPPED AND GAVE US THE CORRECT NUMBER OF CIRCULATING DINARS AT THE BEGINING OF 2012. He was not supposed to, but he did.
So from now on when you read that there are 37 trillion dinars circulating in Iraq, ask yourself the question, IF THERE TRULY IS 37 TRILLION DINAR ACTUALLY CIRCULATING IN IRAQ, WHY WOULD THEY ONLY PRINT 5 TRILLION TO REPLACE THEM IF THE GOAL WAS TO SECURE THE CURRENCY – TO PROTECT IT FROM COUNTERFEITERS?
Now you know the rest of the story. tlar PS your currency will never be replaced. It will be destroyed so they did not reprint for you and me.
Articles & Links Referenced In Discussion Provided By Phillyman & JD Blue:
Thousands of supporters of the Sadrist movement, on Friday in Tahrir Square in central Baghdad, in support of the initiative of the leader of the reformist trend, while the roads leading to the square witnessed intensive security measures to protect the demonstrators. LINK
Confirmed the cleric Moqtada al-Sadr on Friday that Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi is at stake after the “rose up people,” as pointed out that the prime minister dawdle for reforms after enabled to achieve them, he stressed that al-Abadi binding radical reforms do not prosthetics. LINK
Vowed to cleric Moqtada al-Sadr on Friday, “the corrupt oppressors” to restore the rights of the Iraqi people, threatening that the Iraqi people will enter the Green Zone to restore his rights. LINK
Confirmed the cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, on Friday, the lack of differences between the Islamic and the Iraqi civil or between Sunni and Shiite, and among that everyone on this country, “which Qdmth AFCAC corrupt and authoritarian”, he pointed out that “the Iraqi people want the reform of the government.” LINK
Amid Iraqi Chaos, Moktada al-Sadr, an Old Provocateur, Returns
By TIM ARANGOFEB. 26, 2016
BAGHDAD — They came from the slums of this city’s underclass, the alleyways and the simple halls of the seminary in the Shiite holy city of Najaf, and the outer reaches of the rural south.They waved Iraqi flags and demanded change. The crowd packed Baghdad’s Tahrir Square on Friday morning, chanting by the tens of thousands against corruption and for decisive reforms in how politics is conducted here, as they waited for their man to appear. “No, no to thieves! Yes, yes to reforms!” LINK
http://static01.nyt.com/images/2016/02/27/world/27SADR-web3/27SADR-web2-1456503447038-superJumbo.jpg
Great Pictures:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CcIOvHFUUAA50b-.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CcIYukIVAAADDkH.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CcIYvDFUEAA8BT4.jpg
