TNT:
Tishwash: Al-Zaidi at the White House… “Starlink” and the oil fields are Baghdad’s gateway to breaking Washington’s favor
The whispering voice from the back corridors of diplomacy indicates that the Iraqi Prime Minister, Ali al-Zaidi, has become the fastest Iraqi Prime Minister to reach the White House after assuming office, in a visit that resembles not the rituals of routine protocol as much as it resembles the inauguration of a new geopolitical “threshold,” in which the chemistry of interests is intertwined with the fuel of strategic caution.
Behind the scenes in Washington, the anticipated visit is seen as marking a new phase in the relationship between Baghdad and Washington. It’s not merely about exchanging agendas, but rather an attempt to forge broader cooperation on critical issues such as energy, the economy, and security.
As the drafts of the initial agreements whisper, there is a bold ambition to expand the presence of American companies in Iraq, particularly those operating in the southern oil fields, as well as granting important licenses to Starlink, in a move that symbolizes a breakthrough into Iraq’s troubled digital space.
However, this bright horizon is not without clouds in the form of looming obstacles, given the continued influence of Iran and armed factions in the Iraqi scene.
Here, specifically, the bitter reality is revealed; the statesman who tries to tame the factional dragon is dancing on the edge of an abyss, where the sounds of missiles sometimes rise above the voice of reason.
Al-Masalla highlighted a telling tweet by Iraqi political analyst Ghalib al-Nahi, who wrote: “Al-Zaidi’s visit is not a sightseeing trip… The man carries a briefcase full of promises, but he knows that the real decision-maker may not be in Baghdad or Washington.” In contrast, international relations professor Renad Mansour wrote on his account: “Granting Starlink licenses is a test of sovereignty… Does the Baghdad government have the luxury of opening up airspace without prior permission from the factions and Iran?”
Sources confirm that Washington has received initial positive signals regarding a number of demands that it had previously conveyed to the Iraqi government. The sources describe Barak’s visit as pivotal in the course of Iraqi-American relations, considering that it establishes a different phase from that which followed 2003, based on clear commitments and mutual interests.
The burning core that could derail the negotiations, according to those sources, is the most prominent American demand to disarm all armed factions without exception, prevent their participation in the government, and complete the integration of the Popular Mobilization Forces into official security institutions after removing leaders associated with armed factions. link
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TishwashL MP: Economic reform begins with activating the private sector
MP Ali al-Zirjawi called on the Prime Minister on Saturday to activate the role of the private sector and alleviate pressure on the country’s general budget, given the current economic challenges.
Al-Zirjawi told the Information Agency that “the large operational expenditures in the general budget have caused recurring economic crises and affected the state’s ability to implement sustainable development projects.”
He added that “Iraq is currently experiencing an economic crisis as a result of mismanagement and poor planning, in addition to regional tensions that have negatively impacted the overall economic situation.”
He pointed out that “addressing this crisis requires genuine economic reforms, foremost among them supporting the private sector and reducing reliance on government operational spending.”
He stressed that “the current stage necessitates adopting more flexible economic policies to ensure the stability of the national economy and improve the level of services.”
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Tishwsh: Following the FATF decision, economists warn of a heavy cost and financial isolation for Iraq after its return to the grey list.
Economic experts warned on Saturday of the repercussions of Iraq’s return to the “grey list” of countries under enhanced monitoring regarding efforts to combat money laundering and financial crimes, stressing that the slowness in addressing this issue could land the country on the “black list,” where Baghdad faces international financial and economic isolation.
A step backward and an international alarm bell
In this regard, Ziad Al-Hashemi, a researcher and consultant in economics and international transport, said in a blog post that Iraq’s return to the Financial Action Task Force’s grey list after it was removed from it in 2018 represents a step backward and an international alarm bell indicating that compliance standards for combating money laundering and terrorist financing are still not being properly implemented.
He explained that “this negative development reveals a clear deficiency in the implementation of anti-money laundering and smuggling plans, which puts the Central Bank and the banking system in a worrying position before international financial institutions, and will increase the caution of international banks, especially correspondent banks that work with Iraq in completing dollar transfers.”
Al-Hashemi pointed out that the expected result of this inclusion is to impose more scrutiny on foreign transfers, and to obligate the Central Bank to take complex measures to stop suspicious transactions, indicating that these steps may take a long period of reviews and adjustments to implementation and monitoring procedures.
Compliance costs and parallel market pressures
From an economic standpoint, the economic consultant confirmed that listing inevitably means higher compliance costs and foreign transfers, a slowdown in investment flows, increased pressure on exchange rates in the parallel market, and growing demand for cash transactions outside the banking system, with a possible increase in the cost of external borrowing.
For his part, the head of the “Iraq Future” Foundation for Economic Studies and Consultations, Manar Al-Obaidi, warned in a written statement of the seriousness of this inclusion, saying: “The failure to complete the agreed procedures within the specified timeframes will cost Iraq a lot, and may expose it to the risk of being placed on the blacklist with its financial isolation and economic damages that affect the daily livelihood of the citizen,” stressing that the opportunity is still available to remedy the situation, but the cost will be exorbitant if it is missed.
The official position: A national plan and avoiding a “black” situation.
In contrast, the Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Financing Council, in cooperation with the Central Bank of Iraq, announced the adoption of a joint and specific action plan to develop the national system, stressing that Baghdad has succeeded through its proactive measures in avoiding the international “blacklist” by complying with standards and addressing weaknesses identified by international and regional groups.
The Council explained that the approved national plan indicates that the competent Iraqi authorities have made tangible progress since the adoption of the mutual evaluation report in November 2024, including the application of market entry controls and the introduction of risk reduction measures in the real estate sector, indicating that the enhanced follow-up path has been accompanied by many countries of the world and the region based on “Quality and Consistency” reviews and adjustment of weights and assessments due to the nature of the existing risks.
FATF decision and justifications for international listing
These field positions come in conjunction with the announcement by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) yesterday, Friday, that Iraq has been officially placed on the “grey list”.
The group’s chair, Elisa de Anda Madrazo, said in a statement translated by Shafaq News Agency that “the group’s plenary meeting decided to add Iraq to the enhanced monitoring list, as there is still an urgent need to take measures to address the risks associated with heavy cash transactions, increase judicial investigations related to money laundering, and enhance the use of financial information.”
Government priorities and anticipated financial reform
This shocking international decision and financial controversy comes at a time when the new Iraqi government is asserting that economic reform and combating corruption are the cornerstones of its ministerial program. Prime Minister Ali al-Zubaidi had announced, since taking office last May, that rebuilding the financial system, attracting foreign investments, and fighting corruption channels would be at the forefront of his government’s program.
It is worth noting that the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) announced in July 2018 that Iraq had been completely removed from the monitoring and surveillance zone, as a result of the significant progress made by the Central Bank of Iraq and the Anti-Money Laundering Office at the time in fulfilling international obligations and implementing a comprehensive financial compliance strategy, with broad participation from governmental, judicial and security systems, including the Supreme Judicial Council, the Ministries of Interior, the National Security and Intelligence Services, the Counter-Terrorism Service, and counterpart agencies in the Kurdistan Region. link
Tishwash: An economic institution warns against the “dollarization” of the Iraqi economy and the deepening of poverty if the dinar is devalued.
The “Iraq Future” Foundation for Economic Studies and Consultations warned on Friday of the repercussions of reducing the value of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar, stressing that the negatives of such a step – if the federal government takes it – will outweigh its temporary benefits to the country’s economy.
These warnings come at a time when political and financial circles are increasingly discussing the possibility of devaluing the local currency as an option to address the current deficit and alleviate pressure on the general budget, especially after government revenues declined sharply to only 10% compared to their previous levels before the recent military conflict in the region and the easing of the Strait of Hormuz.
The report quoted the head of the institution, economist Manar Al-Obaidi, as saying, “Despite the assurances in official reports regarding the stability of monetary policy and its pursuit of stability, it remains necessary to analyze the pros and cons of this approach to assess its real impact on the Iraqi economy and society.”
Partial financial gains
The report explained that those who support the option of reducing the dinar rely on a number of financial and monetary gains; most notably providing a partial financial option that contributes to reducing government expenditures denominated in dinars (such as local salaries), which in turn reduces the overall size of spending in dollars.
Supporters also believe that higher prices for imported goods will enhance the competitiveness of local agricultural and industrial products, as well as protect cash reserves from continuous depletion and reduce the gap between the official exchange rate and the parallel market rate.
Risks of “dollarization” and recession
On the other hand, the institution warned of dire consequences that could squander these gains, most notably a complete loss of confidence in the national currency.
In this regard, Al-Obaidi explained that “the continuous change in the value of the currency at a rate of every two years undermines the public’s confidence in the dinar, which pushes the private sector and citizens to adopt the dollar as the primary currency in daily and commercial transactions.”
He added that this “dollarization” will create a huge demand for hard currency in the parallel market, which may cause the price gap to widen instead of narrowing as a result of the scarcity of official supply, warning that the lack of exchange rate stability will inevitably drive away local and foreign investments that base their feasibility studies on long-term plans.
The report also indicated that devaluing the dinar would automatically increase the cost of government contracts for purchasing goods and services denominated in foreign currency, thus raising the state’s operating expenses and plunging the country into a spiral of “successive reductions” without sustainable financial guarantees.
A wave of inflation and deepening poverty
On the social level, the organization warned that the absence of adequate social protection mechanisms to support vulnerable groups means that the currency devaluation will generate a sharp wave of inflation that will push large segments of citizens below the poverty line, as well as bringing the commercial sector (which represents the largest share of non-oil GDP) into a state of paralysis and stagnation, which will negatively affect job opportunities and exacerbate unemployment rates among young people.
The head of the “Iraq of the Future” Foundation concluded his remarks by saying: “Adjusting the exchange rate alone is not a radical solution, but rather a postponement of a deeper crisis. The real problem lies in three main axes: the continuous inflation of operating expenses, the scarcity of non-oil revenues, and the imbalance in the trade balance. Comprehensive structural reform begins with addressing these roots and not through individual and temporary solutions.” link
