Gold has just climbed to 4,620 dollars an ounce, its highest level in three months. Bitcoin is trading around 78,000 dollars after a rise of about 20% since the U.S. Treasury announcement on August 19. Both assets benefit from the same movement: the dollar falls and investors start looking for alternatives again.
In brief
- Gold gains about 5% over the week and reaches 4,620 dollars.
- Bitcoin trades near 78,000 dollars after its recent rally.
- The dollar index dropped to 98.723 after the U.S. Treasury announcement.
Bitcoin and gold benefit from the dollar’s decline
The yellow metal gains about 5% over a week. Futures contracts even approached 4,650 dollars. Ole Hansen, strategist at Saxo Bank, is now watching the 4,770 dollar area. A move above could open the way toward 5,000 dollars an ounce.
The U.S. Treasury triggered the movement
It all started with the bond market. The yield on 30-year U.S. bonds had reached 5.337%, a 19-year high. The Treasury reacted by doubling its long-term bond buyback program between September and November. Yields then returned around 5.198%. The dollar fell.
These buybacks allow the Treasury to withdraw certain old bonds from the market and replace them with new issuances. This is not Fed quantitative easing. The difference matters. For the markets, the immediate effect still resembles a loosening of financial conditions.
Buyers also do not always come from the same place. Central banks remain very active in gold. Bitcoin attracts more private investors, companies, and listed funds. This week, both camps are buying.
The “debasement trade” returns to the markets
The term is circulating again on Wall Street: “debasement trade.” The principle remains quite simple. When investors fear a sustained decline in the value of currencies, they look for assets whose supply does not directly depend on governments.
Gold has fulfilled this role for centuries. Bitcoin is trying to take part of that place. Mohamed El-Erian simultaneously cited BTC near 79,000 dollars and gold above 4,600 dollars among the most notable movements currently.
Not everyone puts them in the same category, though. Robin Brooks, former Goldman Sachs strategist, prefers gold and silver. He believes Bitcoin does not yet benefit from the same status when investors really seek to protect against currency risk.
