Article: “Oil and gas laws: a crux of Erbil-Baghdad tension” Back in the forefront of ReValuation (RV) news…HCL. We’ve made it through Ramadan, budgeting, elections, and a whole slew of other issues. All of them, although lengthy at times, have sailed successfully through the turbulent waters and left us with a final component: HCL. It’s actually on the horizon. It’s being talked about, and I’m predicting we’ll see more of this very shortly. Adding fuel to the HCL fire: “Iraqi oil minister: OPEC agreement + will reduce stocks and achieve price stability” WTI just crossed $60 again, and those of us watching the OIL tickers recently are well aware of how stable OIL is right now. Those of us pairing that information with the current and ongoing situation in Iraq understand how important OIL is to Iraq’s ability to RV. And in case anyone needed some reassurance…it’s going as perfect as we could hope for.
There will never be an absolutely perfect set of circumstances under which Iraq “can” or “should” or “must” change the value of their currency. I see a fair amount of comments from people stating something like “Oh, Iraq will never RV unless X happens, or until Y is implemented”, etc etc… that is simply not true. There is NO absolute “must” for Iraq. They can change the rate today. Or yesterday, or tomorrow. They can do it without any further progress, without any permission from anyone or anything, and all the speculation in the world won’t give us an exact date or a precise set of circumstances. The situation we find ourselves in today, at this very moment, is “good enough”. Personally, I’m on standby for an incredible event. A solid resolution on the oil and gas law (HCL) will mean “no turning back”, but just the same – it’s not a necessity. Pretty darn exciting, if you ask me.