Gold has entered September with the $5,000 price becoming a serious market target, even after Tuesday’s decline of more than 1% to $4,358.68. Higher U.S. Treasury yields, which reached their highest level since January 2025, have pressured bullion by increasing the appeal of income-generating assets.
The move follows gold’s climb above $4,375 last week before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole comments contributed to a 3% Friday selloff. Yet two data points are keeping the bullish case alive: global M2 money supply has reached $103.32 trillion, and global gold ETFs recorded $18.9 billion in trailing 12-month inflows.
Trend #1: Global Money Supply Is Rising Again
Global M2 reached $103,322 billion as of August 31, based on money-supply data from the United States, Euro Zone, China and Japan converted into U.S. dollars at prevailing exchange rates.
The latest complete monthly data covers July 2026. Dollar-denominated global M2 increased 1.13% over three months, with a z-score of -0.30, placing the pace near historical norms. At constant exchange rates, global M2 rose 0.97%, with a z-score of -1.10.
Are gold prices poised for more upside?Based on the historical relationship between gold and global M2 money supply, gold is valued at $5,025 per ounce today, according to Fidelity analysis.
This implies +9% upside from the current gold price of ~$4,600.
This comes as global… pic.twitter.com/SNWReSBlRn
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 31, 2026
The United States provided the strongest contribution among the four economies, with M2 increasing 2.03% over three months. Euro Zone M2 increased 0.81%, China rose 0.70%, and Japan added only 0.11%. The U.S. Dollar Index gained 1.62% during the same three-month period, affecting the dollar value of overseas money supplies.
The important point for the gold price is liquidity. Fidelity’s analysis places the metal at approximately $5,025 based on its historical relationship with global M2. From a gold price near $4,600, that model points to 9% upside.
Why Fidelity’s Model Values Gold at $5,025
The $5,025 estimate comes from the historical relationship between gold and global M2. When the amount of money circulating through major economies expands, investors have more capital available across financial markets, and some of that capital can move toward stores of value such as bullion.
ETF demand provides additional evidence. Global gold ETFs attracted $18.9 billion in trailing 12-month inflows, up from $12.0 billion in June. That is the strongest trailing 12-month inflow figure since February.
Trend #2: Gold ETF Inflows Are Accelerating
ETF flows provide another bullish data point. The SPDR Gold Trust recorded net purchases of 35.3 tonnes in August 2026, its largest monthly addition since February 2025.
The timing matters because the gold price reached roughly $4,700 during August after beginning the month near $4,000. The metal gained almost 10% for August, and the largest gold investment trust increased its holdings during that advance.
That combination points to institutional demand at elevated gold prices. It also means ETF investors are committing capital through financial products instead of relying only on physical bullion demand.
Still, one month of strong ETF buying cannot guarantee continued inflows. SPDR’s holdings have fluctuated during 2026, including a notable decline in March. Future fund flows will therefore remain an important gauge for the gold price.
What Could Stop Gold From Reaching $5,000?
The biggest obstacle is Federal Reserve policy. Gold does not pay interest, so higher rates can make Treasury securities more attractive. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has already climbed to its highest level since January 2025, increasing pressure on bullion.
A stronger dollar creates another problem because gold is priced in U.S. dollars. Higher oil prices could also keep inflation elevated, giving the Fed less room to ease monetary policy. Geopolitical de-escalation would reduce safe-haven demand, and profit-taking could create additional selling after August’s near-10% advance.
The next major data tests are the ADP employment report on Wednesday and nonfarm payrolls on Friday. Market expectations for monetary policy are especially important because traders have been pricing a 66% probability of a rate hike this month.
Gold Price Prediction: Is $5,000 the Next Major Target?
The bullish case for the $5,000 price rests on two measurable forces: liquidity and investment demand. Global M2 stands at $103.32 trillion, Fidelity’s model values gold near $5,025, global gold ETFs have taken in $18.9 billion over 12 months, and SPDR Gold Trust added 35.3 tonnes in August.
If the gold price can reclaim the $4,600–$4,700 area and hold above it, the $5,000 price becomes the next major psychological and technical target. A move from $4,600 to $5,000 would require about 8.7% upside, close to Fidelity’s estimated 9% potential.
The base case is a move toward $4,700, followed by a test of $5,000 if ETF inflows remain strong and global liquidity keeps expanding. The bearish case emerges if Treasury yields continue climbing, the dollar strengthens and Fed policy becomes more restrictive. In that scenario, gold could remain below $4,600 before making another attempt.
